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1:35 Really is. Who's next, then? 1:42 Auzubillahiminashaitanirrajim. 1:56 Bismillahirrahmanirrahim. in fi kholqis 2:14 samawati wal ardhifil laili wanahar la 2:25 ayatin liulil albab alladzina qiyamaw 2:41 waqu'udaw wa'ala junubihim 2:49 wayatafakkaruna fi khalqis samawati wal 2:55 ard rabbana ma khalaqta hadza bathila 3:06 Subhanaka faqina adzabannar. Rabbana 3:18 innana sami'na munadiyay yunadi lil 3:25 imani an aminu birabbikum fa amanna. 3:37 Rabbana faghfirlana dhunubana wa kaffir 3:43 anna sayyi'atina watawaffana ma'al 3:51 abrar. Rabbana wa atina ma wa'adtana ' 4:00 ala rusulika wala tukhzina yaumal 4:06 qiyamah. Innaka la tukhliful mi'ad. 4:19 Sadaqallahul adzim. Assalamu'alaikum 4:26 warahmatullahi wabarakatuh. 4:28 Wa'alaikumussalam warahmatullahi 4:29 wabarakatuh. 4:30 Bismillahirrahmanirrahim. 4:31 Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi 4:32 wabarakatuh, dear leaders and aspiring 4:34 leaders all across Indonesia. We are 4:37 back tonight for Indonesia Leaders Talk 4:40 , with the theme: RI's debt, between 4:43 necessity and prudence. Dear friends, 4:49 as we know, by the end of 2020, 4:52 Indonesia's foreign debt exceeded 6,000 4:56 trillion Rupiah, precisely 6,074 4:59 trillion Rupiah. According to the World 5:05 Bank, the government's debt-to-GDP 5:07 ratio has reached 38.68%, getting 5:13 closer to the maximum threshold for a 5:16 nation's debt-to-GDP ratio, which, 5:18 according to the Financial Law, is 60%. 5:24 And throughout 2019, within just one 5:28 year, Indonesia's debt increased by 5:31 1,296 trillion, during Mr. Jokowi's 5:35 administration in 2019 alone. Now, with 5:40 the trend of increasing foreign debt 5:44 and the narrowing gap of the 5:48 debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 60%, what 5:52 are the potential risks for our country 5:56 ? To discuss this, we have invited 6:00 several speakers tonight to review the 6:03 theme of the Republic of Indonesia's 6:05 debt. First, we have our economist, a 6:09 very brilliant young economist, Mas 6:12 Bima Yudistira. Assalamu'alaikum, Mas 6:14 Bima. 6:17 Wa'alaikumussalam. 6:18 Yes, I hope you can provide a little 6:20 insight. 6:20 Bung Rocky Gerung. 6:22 Yes. 6:22 Mr. Mardani will be here later. 6:24 Yes, he will join us later. I hope you 6:27 can provide us with enlightenment on 6:30 the state of our foreign debt, its 6:32 impact, and perhaps recommendations for 6:35 the government. Second, we are joined 6:40 by Dr. Anis Byarwati, a member of the 6:43 DPR RI Commission 9, who deals with 6:46 finance. 6:47 Commission 11, Mas Haldi. 6:48 Oh, Commission 11. My apologies, I 6:51 confused it with health. 6:52 Yes, Ma'am. I was just speaking with 6:54 Mrs. Neti earlier. 6:55 I see. Mrs. Anis, I hope you can 6:59 elaborate on the deliberations between 7:02 Commission 9 and the Ministry of 7:05 Finance... 7:07 Commission 11. 7:09 Commission 11 and the Ministry of 7:11 Finance have discussed the issue of 7:13 foreign debt. Perhaps you can share 7:16 that and explain the PKS policy 7:18 regarding this foreign debt situation. 7:22 And as always, our regular speaker for 7:23 Indonesia Leaders Talk, Bung Rocky 7:25 Gerung. Good evening, Bung Rocky. Also, 7:30 later Mr. Mardani Ali Sera will join 7:33 around 9:00 PM because he is currently 7:36 traveling on a plane. Alright, dear 7:40 friends, before we move to Mas Bima for 7:42 his review, I would like to express my 7:45 gratitude to all our friends in the 7:47 media and reporters who consistently 7:50 cover this event and report on it. 7:53 Hopefully, this serves as a positive 7:55 contribution and provides political and 7:57 national enlightenment for all 7:59 Indonesian people. Furthermore, this 8:03 event is also broadcast live on the 8:05 YouTube and Facebook channels of Mr. 8:08 Mardani Ali Sera, then the PKS TV 8:11 YouTube and Facebook channels, the 8:13 Prosperous Justice Party Facebook page, 8:16 as well as the Rasil TV YouTube channel 8:19 , and is also aired live on the Rasil 8:22 AM 720 radio channel. So, for those of 8:25 you who wish to watch this event, you 8:27 can choose one of those channels, and 8:29 if you are watching on YouTube, don't 8:31 forget to subscribe to the YouTube 8:33 channels of Mr. Mardani Ali Sera, PKS 8:35 TV, and Rasil TV. Alright, for the 8:38 first opportunity, I give the floor to 8:40 Mas Bima to share his views regarding 8:42 our theme tonight, Indonesia's Debt. 8:45 Mas Bima, please proceed. 8:48 Okay. Alright. Peace be upon you, and 8:50 Allah's mercy and blessings. Good 8:51 evening, everyone. So, thank you, PKS 8:55 is one of the parties that remains 8:58 consistent, especially regarding the 9:00 debt issue, because this is an issue 9:03 that directly impacts the public. There 9:08 are three points I would like to 9:10 briefly convey regarding the condition 9:12 and the debt risks we will face. So, 9:16 regarding the first point, the actual 9:19 question is: what is wrong with the 9:22 debt? Why is Indonesia one of the 9:26 highest debt interest payers when 9:29 compared to countries in the Asia 9:31 Pacific? In fact, Indonesia is one of 9:35 the highest or most expensive payers of 9:37 debt interest. The second point relates 9:41 to whether it is true that the 9:44 government's narrative is always that 9:47 the COVID-19 situation requires a 9:49 fairly large budget, state revenue is 9:53 declining, so the option to overcome 9:56 the budget deficit is through debt. Now 10:00 , we must try to examine this second 10:03 point: is it true that the loans issued 10:06 by the government, including global 10:08 bonds and loans from other countries, 10:11 are solely for handling COVID-19 and 10:14 economic recovery? And the final point, 10:18 I think, relates to what should be done 10:21 as a critical partner of the government 10:24 . What can the government possibly do 10:28 so that we do not enter a debt overhang 10:30 condition or have debt become a burden 10:33 in the future? Now, for this first 10:38 point regarding Indonesia as the 10:40 country that pays the most expensive 10:43 interest on its debt, the data indeed 10:47 shows that for the issuance of 10:49 government bonds with a 10-year term, 10:52 Indonesia pays an annual yield of 6.2%. 10:59 to the investors. There is indeed a 11:03 trend where, back in the days of SBY, 11:07 Suharto, and Megawati, the largest 11:10 proportion of loans were bilateral 11:14 loans to various countries, and 11:17 multilateral loans from institutions 11:21 like the World Bank. But in the Jokowi 11:26 era, there was a shift, so debt 11:28 issuance or loans were focused more on 11:32 the financial market or issuing 11:34 government securities. Now, we see that 11:39 the debt issued to the Indonesian 11:41 market is very expensive at 6.26%. 11:46 Whereas the Philippines has the same 11:48 rating as Indonesia. Rating agency 11:52 Fitch gives Indonesia a BBB rating, and 11:55 the Philippines is also triple B, BBB 11:58 as well. However, Indonesia and the 12:01 Philippines are vastly different when 12:03 Indonesia offers up to 6.2%. While the 12:07 Philippines only offers 2.9%. So the 12:10 Philippines is around 3%, Indonesia is 12:13 6.2%. So, what is this? When we look at 12:17 it from the inflation side, it turns 12:20 out inflation in Indonesia was only 1.6 12:23 %. While inflation in the Philippines 12:26 was 2.4%. So the logic currently in 12:30 place is strange. 12:33 Where the rating is the same. Indonesia 12:36 offers more expensive bond interest 12:38 rates, and the Philippines' inflation 12:40 is higher. Even though people buying 12:43 debt should consider what the inflation 12:47 is and what margin they will get. Well, 12:52 Indonesia's case doesn't quite add up. 12:54 So, there is a serious problem 12:56 regardless of the similar rating. It 12:59 seems Indonesia is applying a 13:01 relatively expensive interest rate 13:03 strategy. This is because Indonesia is 13:06 one of the countries that is cornered 13:08 because it is confused about how to get 13:10 other financing. Meanwhile, the deficit 13:12 continues to increase. So one of the 13:15 strategies is to sell off debt with 13:17 high interest rates. So what happens? 13:21 Indonesia becomes powerless in front of 13:24 these creditors. It’s clear that 13:27 buying Indonesian government bonds is 13:29 very lucrative. The real yield is up to 13:34 4.5%. That is the difference between 13:37 the yield minus the inflation. So we 13:40 get a real rate of 4.5%. If you buy 13:44 bonds from the Philippine government, 13:46 you only get 0.5%. That is why the life 13:51 and death of the Indonesian financial 13:53 sector is also determined by the 13:55 interest of foreign investors or 13:57 foreign creditors to buy Indonesian 14:00 government bonds. So this is one of the 14:03 things that makes something strange 14:05 outside of economic calculations. Why 14:08 is our interest rate the most expensive 14:10 ? Because the government is powerless 14:13 in front of the creditors. The 14:15 government has no guts in front of the 14:17 creditors to lower interest rates. Even 14:20 though our inflation in 2020 was very 14:22 small, lower than the Philippines '. 14:27 For the second point, to answer whether 14:30 it is true that the existing loans, 14:33 especially those issued for economic 14:36 recovery and also for vaccination, were 14:39 needed solely for the pandemic, or 14:42 whether there is actually a fatal issue 14:46 related to the use of that debt, as it 14:51 turns out not all of it was for 14:53 pandemic issues and real economic 14:56 recovery in the community. Why? Because 15:01 we see some oddities, especially 15:04 regarding expenditure items in the 15:06 state budget (APBN). Since a portion of 15:11 the state budget uses debt, the largest 15:14 item—which the government rarely 15:17 reports fully—turns out to be 15:19 personnel expenditure, consuming 21%of 15:22 central government spending. The value 15:26 is no joke. It is 420 trillion rupiah. 15:30 Expenditure on goods is 18%. Then, to 15:33 pay for the debt itself, the interest 15:36 payment already consumes nearly 19%. So 15:41 , if we rank the largest expenditure 15:43 items, they remain personnel spending, 15:45 goods spending, capital expenditure, 15:47 and debt interest payments. Meanwhile, 15:51 if the government says, "Yes, we 15:53 distribute basic food, we distribute 15:55 cash assistance, we have social 15:57 protection," that portion is small. 16:00 That portion is only 8.1%. This means 16:04 that out of government debt entering 16:07 the state budget, 57%is used up for 16:10 bureaucratic spending and debt interest 16:13 payments. So, imagine the government 16:16 borrowing at high interest rates, with 16:19 the debt entering the state treasury. 16:22 Then 57%of that central government 16:24 spending is exhausted on matters of a 16:26 bureaucratic nature. So, it cannot be 16:30 as simple as saying that because it is 16:32 urgent, because of the pandemic, the 16:35 addition of thousands of trillions in 16:37 debt is justified. So this is 16:40 completely unfounded and incomplete. It 16:43 means there are things that are being 16:45 hidden. The debt interest payment 16:49 itself already erodes 19%of state 16:51 revenue. So even if the government 16:55 increases tax revenue, 19%of the state 16:59 revenue is used up for Since 2015, the 17:06 portion of debt interest payments has 17:08 continued to increase relative to 17:10 central government spending. So, in the 17:13 Jokowi era, there was an increase in 17:14 the proportion of debt interest 17:16 spending against total central 17:18 government spending. Now, another 17:22 interesting issue is when we look at 17:24 the ineffective spending posture, 17:27 including what is transferred to local 17:30 governments. It turns out that some of 17:35 the money from the central government 17:38 transferred to the regions for Covid-19 17:41 economic recovery is now sitting as 17:43 deposits in regional governments, 17:46 placed in regional banks, valued at 218 17:49 trillion. So even that is just parked. 17:52 So, much of the debt is actually 17:54 wasteful in nature. So there is a lot 17:56 of debt that we haven't included yet; 17:58 for example, in one of the latest cases 18:01 , the basic food aid was corrupted. Now 18:04 , that means we go through the trouble 18:06 of borrowing, the debt is partially 18:08 used for spending, and that spending 18:09 leaks out. So it is not wrong to say 18:12 that debt financing is partly used to 18:15 subsidize corruptors. And for the third 18:20 point, what can be done looking at this 18:23 problem? Because this debt problem, if 18:26 left alone, in economic theory will 18:29 lead to a debt overhang phenomenon. 18:33 Debt overhang means that debt is no 18:36 longer a leverage for the economy, but 18:40 it has entered the stage of becoming a 18:43 burden. This means the more debt there 18:47 is, the economy does not grow higher 18:49 but instead gets increasingly eroded. 18:53 Because the government, which should 18:55 have provided greater social protection 18:57 and larger stimulus capacity for MSMEs, 19:00 has instead used much of its funds to 19:02 pay off debt interest. Well, to prevent 19:07 this—though it's difficult because 19:10 until 2050 the government still has to 19:13 issue debt to pay off maturing debts, 19:16 with the 2050 maturing debt issued back 19:19 in 2020. It means that until 2050, our 19:23 children and grandchildren will still 19:24 bear the burden of government debt. So, 19:26 there are several suggestions. The 19:28 first is to straighten out the 19:31 narrative regarding debt, that debt is 19:33 for productive purposes. That is not 19:36 true. Most of the debt is for 19:38 bureaucratic spending. So, straighten 19:42 out the idea that debt drives economic 19:44 growth; that has not been proven. In 19:48 the 2015 to 2019 phase, even before the 19:50 pandemic, debt growth was quite high 19:53 but was not accompanied by economic 19:56 growth. Our economy before the pandemic 20:00 was flat at 5%growth. The manufacturing 20:02 industry continues to decline. The 20:04 absorption of the new workforce has 20:06 also relatively decreased in quality. 20:08 So it is not true that debt can 20:10 leverage growth; it actually becomes a 20:12 burden. That is the first narrative 20:14 that must be corrected. The second is, 20:16 it is true that in the 2003 State 20:19 Finance Law, there is a note that the 20:22 debt-to-GDP ratio must not exceed 60%. 20:27 But that is too simplistic, an 20:30 oversimplified matter. Because we must 20:33 look at many other debt indicators, 20:36 such as the debt service ratio, or you 20:39 may borrow—the state may borrow—but 20:42 it must think about how to pay it back 20:44 later, and where you will get the money 20:47 . Especially if the debt is in foreign 20:50 currency or forex. How will it be 20:52 repaid later? It means we must find 20:56 more foreign currency because the debt 20:59 is in dollars, yuan, yen, or euros. Now 21:04 , this is what must be thought about. 21:06 And Indonesia, as a developing country, 21:09 has a high debt service ratio. This is 21:12 also rarely discussed by the government 21:15 . Indonesia's DSR is one of the highest 21:18 ; one of our rivals is Turkey. Other 21:21 countries in Southeast Asia have DSRs 21:22 that are relatively not as high as 21:24 Indonesia's. What does this mean? It 21:26 means there is an increasing imbalance 21:29 between the debt issued, the new loans, 21:31 and the government's efforts to pay 21:33 them back. With foreign exchange 21:37 earnings from exports, from remittances 21:39 , and others. The third is, how do we 21:42 fix the debt? One way is to first fix 21:45 the spending posture, first fix the 21:48 effectiveness of the spending. Do not 21:52 spend on employees, or on goods that 21:54 are for administrative or bureaucratic 21:57 needs. Then just charging it all to 22:00 debt. So, spending must be regulated to 22:04 be more effective and transparent, 22:06 including ensuring that debt financing 22:08 is not used to subsidize corruption or 22:11 corruptors, which leads to leakages. 22:15 And lastly, because the government is 22:18 now being challenged, do they have the 22:21 guts to face creditors? Can they then 22:25 make various efforts to provide some 22:27 form of relief, at least if not 22:30 principal debt relief, then relief on 22:32 the interest? Many countries have tried 22:36 this, but I haven't heard of the 22:38 Indonesian government daring to 22:40 negotiate, especially with creditors. 22:45 They could say that the national budget 22:48 is currently tight, with the deficit 22:51 widening, doubling to around 6%now. So, 22:59 how can the government tell creditors 23:02 to help us—perhaps by waiving 23:05 interest or reducing the principal— 23:08 while Indonesia commits its spending to 23:12 COVID-19 vaccination? This is 23:17 essentially a debt-swap framework. 23:20 There are many options: debt swaps, 23:22 principal write-offs, and debt relief. 23:25 This would be part of a restructuring 23:28 to provide initial relief, though it's 23:31 not a final solution, as we will still 23:34 have to pay in the future. But at least 23:38 we would have some breathing room. If 23:41 the government isn't brave enough for 23:43 total restructuring, there are at least 23:45 loopholes to exploit, provided they 23:47 have the guts to talk to creditors. 23:51 Otherwise, we’ll end up looking 23:52 ridiculous like this. Even the 23:54 Philippines would laugh at us because 23:57 Indonesia pays interest that is far too 24:00 high compared to inflation, and having 24:03 the same rating as the Philippines 24:05 proves we are increasingly powerless 24:08 before creditors. That’s possible. 24:10 Thank you, Mas Saldi. 24:17 Yes, thank you, Mas Bima. Mas Bima, in 24:22 line with our theme, is our national 24:25 debt during Mr. Jokowi's administration 24:29 —now in its second term—a sign of 24:33 intelligence or a problem? Because...Is 24:40 it necessity or intelligence? The surge 24:43 in debt while Mr. Jokowi has been 24:46 president is much larger than during 24:48 the terms of previous presidents. Is it 24:52 because previous presidents didn't need 24:55 debt? But economically, they were quite 24:58 good, with stability during Mr. SBY's 25:01 era. Now, in Mr. Jokowi's era, debt has 25:06 increased exponentially, yet economic 25:08 growth is worse than under previous 25:11 presidents. So, if we look at this 25:15 comparison, where is the actual problem 25:18 , sir? 25:19 And how should the people respond to 25:24 this situation and urge the government 25:29 to act? Perhaps through our 25:31 representatives in the House, sir. 25:33 Okay, I'll answer briefly. 25:35 Yes. 25:36 During the SBY era, what was the tax 25:38 ratio? In Jokowi's era, we’ve already 25:42 had a tax amnesty. The wealthy were 25:45 forgiven, yet the tax ratio still 25:46 didn't improve after that. That was 25:48 before the pandemic. What does that 25:50 mean? It means there is a narrative 25:53 that suggests if you aren't borrowing, 25:55 you aren't cool. This is quite strange. 25:59 If you don't borrow, you aren't cool. 26:01 That’s what’s happening in the 26:02 Jokowi era. There are even some people 26:07 at state-owned enterprises who say, "My 26:10 company has no debt, or it’s very 26:13 small," and they get laughed at. It 26:17 means you aren't utilizing leverage, 26:19 you aren't using the multiplier effect. 26:22 So, if an institution has no debt in 26:25 this era, it's strange. So there is a 26:29 logic here. What does that mean? It 26:32 means this narrative that debt is for 26:35 productive costs and so on, in my 26:37 opinion, isn't a matter of need or 26:40 intelligence. Because this is part of 26:43 the problem. Because they don't have 26:45 the courage to take the paths that 26:47 should have been taken. Like how to tax 26:51 the super-rich corporations whose names 26:53 are already in the Panama Papers or 26:54 Paradise Papers, for instance, or those 26:56 already in tax amnesty, they just don't 26:58 pursue them. Secondly, they don't have 27:02 the courage to reform spending, so the 27:05 corruption stays exactly the same. I 27:08 mean, this social aid corruption is 27:11 amateurish because they play it like 27:13 school kids collecting ticket money, 27:16 right? So it hasn't evolved. Actually, 27:19 the corruption isn't even that 27:21 sophisticated. If Europeans saw these 27:23 social aid corruption cases, they'd 27:25 laugh. That's Napoleonic-era corruption 27:28 . That's the kind of corruption from 27:31 the 1780s in France. So there are 27:34 things I think the government is 27:36 incapable of doing, so they take a 27:38 shortcut, and because they are too 27:41 ashamed to admit it's a mistake, they 27:43 adopt a popular narrative. "Oh, the 27:47 debt is for productive things, why is 27:48 everyone criticizing the debt?""After 27:51 all, the people benefit from the debt, 27:53 it’s in the form of toll roads and 27:56 all that." But there has never been any 27:59 transparency or education from the 28:01 government on whether this debt policy 28:03 is actually sound and if it will be 28:06 beneficial in the future. The narrative 28:08 is always that. Even now, Mas Saldi, 28:10 when we criticize the debt, because 28:13 some of it is used for infrastructure 28:15 development, 28:17 the government says, "Don't look at the 28:20 empty infrastructure now, look at how 28:23 it will boom once the economy recovers. 28:26 " You criticize the empty toll roads or 28:30 the reduced train occupancy, and they 28:33 say, "Once the economy booms, it will 28:36 come back." I just laugh. What did 28:39 Keynes say? In the long run, we are 28:42 dead. Don't worry about the long term 28:44 yet. Fix the short term that's right in 28:46 front of us first. Because this is 28:48 flawed logic from the government. Their 28:50 optimism is far too excessive, I think. 28:53 Including the debt for leverage, but 28:55 the risks are never taken seriously. So 28:58 that’s it, whether it’s a matter of 29:01 intelligence or need. 29:03 That’s the wrong question. It's 29:05 neither of those. 29:06 Yes. Thank you, Mas Bima. A very 29:08 interesting review. We will continue 29:10 later. Actually, Mas Bima and our 29:14 friends at ILT tonight have tried to 29:17 invite Mr. Yustinus Prastowo, the 29:19 Ministry of Finance spokesperson, to 29:21 provide a direct perspective from the 29:24 government, but there was no response. 29:29 But, hopefully, on another occasion, we 29:32 can get an explanation from the 29:33 government. Alright, fellow colleagues, 29:37 thank you, Mas. Now, let's go to Ms. 29:39 Anis. Peace be upon you, Ms. Anis. And 29:41 peace be upon you too. Now, Ms. Anis, 29:44 perhaps as a representative of the 29:47 people in Commission XI, which oversees 29:49 finance, could you provide a little 29:52 perspective and share what the 29:54 government's—the Ministry of 29:56 Finance's—explanation is regarding 29:58 this growing debt, and what the stance 30:01 of the House of Representatives and the 30:03 PKS party is in voicing concerns 30:05 regarding this debt policy. Ms. Anis, 30:08 please, the floor is yours. 30:10 Yes. In the name of God, the Most 30:11 Gracious, the Most Merciful. Peace be 30:13 upon you and God's mercy and blessings. 30:15 And peace be upon you too. 30:15 Peace be upon you, Mas Bima. Peace be 30:19 upon you, Prof. Rocky, and peace be 30:22 upon you too. I just joined. Sorry I'm 30:24 late. Okay. I 30:25 You’re doing well, Prof? Yes? 30:27 Very well. 30:28 Thank God. 30:29 It's the debt that isn't doing well. 30:34 And also to our friends watching on 30:37 YouTube and listening on the radio. I 30:42 am very happy we are all healthy 30:44 tonight, and the topic is indeed what 30:46 everyone is currently debating. If I 30:50 may, before I answer Mas Haldi's 30:52 question about the explanation, the 30:54 Finance Minister's explanation can be 30:57 read in the media, and Mr. Yustinus's 30:59 explanation can also be read. What you 31:03 mentioned earlier in the introduction 31:05 was the explanation from Mr. Yustinus, 31:07 that the debt is this much and so on. 31:10 If it's the government, we can already 31:11 guess that's how they would explain it. 31:14 But I want to start from the beginning, 31:16 from the paradigm first. Because this 31:19 concerns how we will eventually address 31:21 the debt. Um, simply put—I'm a mother 31:26 , so let’s make it simple—in daily 31:30 life, for example, why does debt happen 31:33 ? Living beyond one's means, right? So, 31:39 we have a certain income, then we want 31:41 expenditures higher than that income. 31:44 Then what is the way to do it? There 31:47 are actually many ways, but the 31:48 simplest is just borrowing. Borrowing 31:50 from whom? From a neighbor, right? So, 31:53 this is a way of thinking that is very, 31:56 very simple. Very, very simple. That if 32:01 you have certain needs and they aren't 32:04 covered by your income, then you borrow 32:07 . And this also depends on the 32:11 government's way of thinking, their 32:13 concept. Does the state budget really 32:17 have to be in deficit? It's as if the 32:20 state budget is indeed designed to be 32:22 in deficit, and the deficit keeps 32:24 widening. Especially during this 32:27 pandemic, according to Law Number 17 of 32:29 2003 concerning State Finance, the safe 32:31 limit for a deficit is set at a maximum 32:34 of 3%of the gross domestic product. But 32:37 with the amendment to Presidential 32:39 Regulation number 54, the government is 32:41 allowed to widen the budget deficit 32:43 beyond 3%until 2022. And now, the 32:48 budget deficit is 6.34%. or 1,039.22 32:54 trillion, to be exact. And is the 32:57 budget really meant to be in deficit? 33:00 Like you said earlier, it feels uncool 33:02 if it's not in deficit, and where does 33:04 the deficit financing come from? From 33:08 debt, yes, and who are we indebted to? 33:13 Debt must be repaid, and debt to other 33:17 countries is not free. This means not 33:22 only do we pay the principal, but we 33:24 also pay the interest on that debt. And 33:28 as mentioned, the interest is very high 33:31 for the debt we are paying. This year, 33:34 Indonesia's debt interest has already 33:36 reached 338.8 trillion, or equivalent 33:40 to 17%of the 2020 state budget. So, 33:45 this figure has actually exceeded the 33:47 safe limit recommended by the IMF, 33:50 which is 10%. Yet, we are already at 17 33:53 %of the state budget. Furthermore, 33:57 Indonesia's principal debt has touched 34:00 475 trillion. So every year, we have to 34:05 pay around 475 plus 338, which is 750 34:09 to 800 trillion, just to pay that off 34:12 every single year. As you also 34:16 mentioned earlier, the impact is that 34:19 our DSR also rises. Data on foreign 34:23 debt statistics for the first semester 34:26 of 2020 reached 29.5%, and this has 34:28 again passed the safe limit. Because 34:32 the IMF has also set the safe limit for 34:34 DSR at 25%, and we have surpassed that. 34:38 What I want to say here is that the way 34:41 of thinking about financing the 34:44 country's needs with debt really needs 34:47 to be corrected. We have many resources 34:51 , abundant resources. It is said that 34:55 in Indonesia, if you plant something 34:57 even under a rock, a plant will grow. 34:59 That's what the Koes Plus song says. 35:02 This means they have not been maximized 35:04 yet. We know that many of our resources 35:07 are problematic, and even being eroded. 35:10 So it is very ironic. While we are out 35:13 searching for debt, what we have inside 35:15 is not optimized to become a source of 35:17 state revenue. Then we also rely on 35:23 taxes, but clearly right now, 35:25 businesses are down, so how can we 35:29 collect those taxes? So while revenue 35:33 cannot be boosted, expenditures 35:35 continue to run. Now, if you ask what 35:38 our stance is, we have criticized it, 35:40 like what you said, Mas Aldi, about the 35:43 state budget posture needing to be 35:45 changed; we have also voiced that. So, 35:48 regarding the composition of financing, 35:51 the interest is high, our debt is huge, 35:53 and paying the interest alone is a 35:55 struggle. But the budget is largely 35:59 being used for things that are not 36:01 productive. Well, regarding that, we 36:05 have voiced that the government must be 36:07 very cautious. Even though the budget 36:12 deficit cap has been relaxed, a wider 36:14 budget still means an increasing burden 36:17 of debt interest. And we have 36:21 repeatedly warned not to easily—we 36:24 must be careful about taking on debt, 36:27 especially foreign debt. Even though 36:31 the government argues that it is still 36:34 safe, that the limit is 60%of GDP. That 36:38 is not the right way to think. 36:40 Especially when compared to other 36:42 countries that might exceed 60%. It is 36:45 different; those countries have strong 36:46 economic foundations. Meanwhile, even 36:49 before the pandemic, our tax revenue 36:52 targets were never met. And that tax 36:55 shortfall persists year after year. It 36:58 has never been met, especially after 37:00 the pandemic. It clearly plummeted. So, 37:03 when our revenue is down, our spending 37:05 should be measured accordingly. Yes. 37:09 But the relocation of the national 37:11 capital is still included, still going 37:14 on, and it's also included in budgets 37:16 lumped together as COVID stimulus, for 37:18 national economic recovery. That hasn't 37:22 been optimal either, as was mentioned 37:25 earlier. Instead of being used properly 37:27 , that budget was even corrupted in the 37:30 form of social aid, which is very 37:32 saddening. So, when our revenue is 37:35 falling, our spending should truly be 37:38 measured. It is the same as us mothers, 37:41 with our husbands' income being a 37:42 certain amount. A mother has to measure 37:45 that income to ensure we don't go into 37:48 debt unless absolutely necessary. For 37:51 example, if a budget cannot be 37:53 postponed, how can we manage so that 37:55 debt doesn't end up trapping us? Now, 37:58 on a national scale, it is the same. If 38:01 we truly must borrow because it is a 38:03 priority mandate that must come first. 38:06 What we are criticizing are several, 38:08 what should I call them? Budget 38:11 postures or allocations that are not 38:15 really that urgent. Like we saw, the 38:19 budget for the national capital 38:20 relocation still has an allocation. Is 38:23 that really necessary when we are 38:25 currently in this situation? And indeed 38:29 , Mas Aldi, it is absolutely true that 38:32 this period holds the record for the 38:35 largest increase in debt, especially 38:38 with the plan to add 1,117.5 trillion 38:41 in debt in 2021; this is very 38:43 concerning, because the result will be 38:46 a surge in the total amount of debt. 11 38:51 , uh, the increase is about 19.62%of 38:53 the total debt at the end of 2020, like 38:55 that. And indeed, uh, Indonesia's debt 38:59 increase statistically in the period 39:01 from 2014 to 2020 has reached 3,390.72 39:05 trillion or an increase of 129.97%in 39:11 just 6 years, from 2,608 trillion in 39:15 2014 to 5,999 in the 2020 State Budget. 39:21 So if we look at it since our 1997-1998 39:24 crisis, this current period holds the 39:28 record for the, uh, highest debt 39:31 increase, and we have criticized that. 39:34 So indeed, uh what do you call it, uh, 39:39 the difficulty is that when the DPR has 39:41 spoken up and given warnings, and I 39:43 feel it's not just PKS regarding, uh, 39:46 debt. Several factions also, uh, 39:47 participate in criticizing, uh, it's 39:49 just that it's not not, what do you 39:53 call it, as sharp or as, you know, 39:56 because they also have, uh, their own 39:58 policies, uh. Many also criticize, like 40:02 from the condition of 11, uh, but the 40:04 government just keeps going, it just 40:06 keeps going. And we have also 40:08 criticized, uh, the changes, uh, or the 40:11 state budget reform earlier; 40:12 infrastructure spending is smaller, you 40:15 know, than personnel spending. So 40:17 routine spending is bigger, like that. 40:19 It's true as what was expressed, uh, by 40:20 that gentleman. We have also, but, uh, 40:23 when it comes out, well, uh, it's like 40:26 that. So we hope, uh, to mutually, what 40:29 do you call it, uh, if PKS is indeed a 40:32 party, uh, that always provides 40:34 constructive and substantive input. Uh, 40:38 Mrs. Sri, when PKS, uh, gets a chance 40:40 to speak, is already a bit, you know, 40:42 because she knows there will definitely 40:44 be, um, what, more criticism and more 40:45 criticism. But, uh, what, it must be 40:49 criticized, and this way of thinking 40:51 also must be fixed, right. Uh, because 40:54 revenue, uh, is decreasing and revenue 40:56 also comes from taxes, we rely on taxes 40:59 . Like earlier, many, uh, of our 41:01 natural resources have not been 41:02 optimized, uh, other state funding 41:04 sources have not. So, uh, we always 41:07 rely on taxes, taxes, taxes, right. 41:10 Even though in this condition, taxes, 41:12 uh, are hard to rely on. Even before 41:14 the pandemic, revenue never reached its 41:16 target, let alone now, right. So 41:18 meanwhile, Mr. Haldi. Yes. Yes, thank 41:23 you, Mrs. Anis. Mrs. Anis, uh, as a 41:25 member of the DPR, you need to continue 41:27 to oversee government policies. 41:30 Especially since PKS is currently the 41:33 only, uh, party that has clearly 41:35 declared itself as the opposition to 41:37 the government, uh, together with the 41:40 Democrats, uh, who are not in 41:42 parliament. Now, uh there is a concern 41:48 from, uh, the community, figures, and 41:51 academics. If this debt continues to 41:55 grow, our sovereignty could be 41:57 threatened because it might be tied to 41:59 clauses in agreements with donor 42:01 countries. Back then, during the reform 42:06 era, we once, uh, discussed the IMF 42:08 debt that shackled our policies so much 42:11 . Then, thank God, it was paid off by 42:15 the government, if I'm not mistaken, 42:17 during Mr. SBY's era, yes, it was paid 42:20 off. Then, it has increased again, 42:24 during Mr. Jokowi's tenure it's more 42:27 than 100%, over 3,000 trillion as 42:29 previously explained. Now, has the 42:33 House of Representatives (DPR) analyzed 42:36 this invisible issue, which the public 42:39 is concerned about: that with this 42:42 growing debt, our country is no longer 42:45 sovereign and is being controlled by 42:48 donor countries. That's how it is, 42:50 Ma'am. 42:52 This is an automatic logic, Mas Haldi, 42:55 right? If we owe money to someone, 42:59 can we really look them in the eye or 43:01 stand as equals to them? Clearly, we 43:05 cannot. Because that debt isn't just 43:08 given to us like that, right? Isn't 43:10 that so? Not just like that. There are 43:13 some conditions for us to be able to 43:16 get a loan from them, right? And this 43:20 automatically creates a dependency on 43:23 these so-called donor countries, even 43:25 though they aren't actually donors. 43:28 They aren't donating anything, are they 43:30 ? They are just debt-granting countries 43:33 . And actually, I haven't mentioned 43:37 that the government has a debt 43:39 financing plan, one of which is by 43:41 issuing government bonds. And earlier, 43:46 Mas Dimas touched on the fact that we 43:48 issued the longest-tenured government 43:49 bonds in history. Our global bond, the 43:54 RI 0470 series, worth 1 billion dollars 43:58 , was issued on April 7, 2020, with a 44:02 tenor of up to 50 years. So this debt 44:07 will mature on April 15, 2070, at a 44:09 rate of 4.5%. Imagine that, 2070 is the 44:14 maturity date. So that’s how many 44:17 generations later; this government is 44:19 leaving a debt legacy until 2070. 44:21 Instead of leaving our generation a 44:24 prosperous land, we are being left with 44:26 debt, right? At then also, the 44:31 government issued 10.5-year tenor bonds 44:35 , series RI 30, worth 5 billion at a 44:38 rate of 3.9%. Then there is also a 30.5 44:44 -year tenor, yes, 30.5 years at 4.25%, 44:47 and 30, 50 years. And strangely, at the 44:51 time they were proud, saying this meant 44:53 we had gained trust from other 44:54 countries, and that they trusted us. 44:57 But who will pay for that? In 2070, in 45:01 2050, who will pay? In the end, it will 45:04 just be burdened onto the people, right 45:07 ? And there is also a 10-year tenor, so 45:12 there are 10, 30, and 50-year tenors. 45:17 Furthermore, domestically, through 45:19 Government Regulation in Lieu of Law ( 45:21 Perpu) Number 1 of 2020, now Law Number 45:23 2 of 2020, the government also allows 45:25 Bank Indonesia to purchase government 45:27 securities through the primary market. 45:30 And this also violates the law, we have 45:32 already warned that, you know, BI is 45:34 not allowed to buy in the primary 45:36 market. BI should only be in the 45:37 secondary market. But this is being 45:39 done, you know. But once again, with 45:40 that government regulation in lieu of 45:41 law. That's why at that time, PKS 45:43 firmly rejected it, and the only party 45:45 that rejected Government Regulation 45:47 Number 1 was PKS, because we knew the 45:48 consequences it would bring. But okay, 45:51 that has already, you know, taken place 45:54 . Then there is also the option of 45:56 burden-sharing with BI, which is 45:58 actually also dangerous, you know. So, 46:00 we are, what should I call it? Besides 46:03 that, if our dependence on foreign 46:05 countries is threatened, it is clear 46:07 because, after all, debt will make us 46:09 dependent on the country that holds the 46:11 debt. Our goods, and they can also 46:16 determine, like it or not, they can 46:19 also influence our policies. Even in 46:23 one study, foreign debt can, you know, 46:27 create various bad things within the 46:31 country that is given the debt. Yes, so 46:38 this is one thing that we must 46:40 criticize together, and I don't really 46:43 want to talk about this debt anymore 46:45 because it has been discussed many 46:48 times in the DPR, and we have also 46:50 voiced it in the media. But this is 46:54 what is happening. And I often say, 46:58 that's why when choosing people's 47:01 representatives, choose correctly, 47:04 those with integrity who understand, so 47:07 they can care for or protect Indonesia. 47:12 When choosing a government, pick the 47:13 right ones, those who side with the 47:15 people's interests and protect 47:17 Indonesia. So that we can hope for 47:20 Indonesia to become a prosperous nation 47:23 , which until now has not been achieved 47:25 . That is all, Mas. 47:30 Alright, thank you, Bu Anis, for the 47:32 explanation. We will continue the 47:34 discussion later. And now we go to Om 47:39 Ri. Good evening, Prof. 47:42 Hi, good evening. Our theme is a bit 47:45 concerning, regarding the future of our 47:48 nation. How does Bung Rocky see our 47:51 foreign debt policy that keeps getting 47:53 higher and has exceeded 6,000 trillion, 47:55 Prof? Indonesia's foreign debt, and 47:59 half of it occurred during Mr. Jokowi's 48:02 term, around 3,000 trillion in just 6 48:04 years. Extraordinary. How does Prof. R 48:07 see this? 48:10 Well, what needs to be explained from 48:12 that data? It's data that the whole 48:14 world understands. So earlier, I still 48:18 caught a little bit that Bima was 48:21 trying to convince...I don't know if 48:25 Bima wanted to convince the people or 48:26 the government. Certainly, he wanted to 48:28 convince the government that its debt 48:30 management is poor. The burden for 48:33 welfare is very small compared to the 48:36 interest in maintaining the technocracy 48:40 , civil servants, and so on, so they 48:43 don't revolt. So, debt is ultimately 48:47 used to maintain a pseudo-political 48:50 stability. Isn't that the point of what 48:54 Bima explained earlier? We learn that 48:58 we borrow to fund development. But if 49:04 the opposite happens—meaning a 49:07 potential crisis in development—it 49:10 has to be bribed so that the inner 49:13 circle of power doesn't revolt or 49:15 resign from the cabinet. Therefore, 49:21 debt is used to bribe, to bribe civil 49:24 servants so they don't worry about our 49:27 debt prospects. And Ms. Anis also 49:31 explained earlier that the House of 49:33 Representatives has spoken out loudly, 49:38 acting as a watchdog, even barking 49:41 every day, and the press records it, 49:43 but nothing changes, right? So the core 49:48 problem here isn't just it isn't just 49:55 the dog barking while the caravan moves 49:58 on. It's actually the caravan barking. 50:01 The caravan barks, and the dog just 50:03 keeps walking. That is actually what is 50:06 happening. So the caravan is giving 50:09 signals to the dog. The dog refuses to 50:11 listen. Now, we are in a condition like 50:18 that—the anxiety of imagining that 50:22 there is no need to advise the 50:25 government because the political power 50:29 balance doesn't allow independent 50:33 academics to advise them. Change only 50:38 happens if there is a balance. Real 50:43 politics. Academic ideas aren't 50:46 considered because this isn't a matter 50:48 of academic intelligence, but ethical 50:50 intelligence. And that is what’s 50:54 missing; the government shows no 50:56 ethical intelligence to signal, "Okay, 50:58 we are in danger, therefore..." and so 51:01 on. Right? What is being showcased is 51:08 false hope—the idea that debt will be 51:12 beneficial in the future. Yes, in the 51:17 future, but we need to calculate now 51:19 whether that future potential even 51:21 exists. Sri Mulyani herself once said 51:25 that every Indonesian child born is 51:27 burdened with 30 million in debt. 51:30 That’s what she explained, and 51:33 perhaps it’s 40 million now due to 51:37 our rising debt. So every child born 51:41 today, once they become a millennial, 51:44 has to pay for the debt created by the 51:47 president today. But can they pay it? 51:51 They could, sure. If our ability to pay 51:55 were equal to America's. In America, if 51:58 they owe one dollar, one person is 52:00 enough to pay it. In Indonesia, if we 52:02 owe one dollar, 30 people have to pay 52:04 it. See? That’s the difference. Our 52:07 ability to pay is a 1 to 30 ratio. So 52:11 imagine, for example, to pay 1 dollar 52:15 of debt, 30 millennials in 2050 must 52:19 gather to pay the debt created today. 52:24 While in other countries, one child is 52:26 enough. So they are ready to take off. 52:28 We are still stuck gathering those 30 52:30 children. And can we even gather them? 52:33 We can't. Why? Because those 30 52:36 children today are stunted and lack 52:37 proper nutrition. Why do they lack 52:40 nutrition? Yes, because the social aid 52:44 was stolen, pilfered by a minister who 52:46 also happens to be from the Party of 52:48 the Little People. That chaos is what 52:51 we must imagine, rather than listening 52:54 to government promises. If there were 52:56 no corruption, we would believe it. If 52:57 the PDI-P minister hadn't stolen, 52:59 perhaps we would believe it. But now 53:02 the burden has shifted from debt and 53:05 economics to a nutritional burden. 53:09 Children who are stunted today because 53:12 their social rights—the social aid 53:15 that is their right—did not reach 53:18 their homes, it means they will lose 25 53:21 percent of their IQ in competing 5 to 53:24 10 years from now. So it is useless for 53:29 us to talk about economic indicators. 53:33 If the political economy itself is not 53:36 understood by those in power. But those 53:38 in power keep on promoting it. Soon in 53:41 the coming year, we will start to grow, 53:43 and then we will start to...gain a 53:48 demographic bonus, you know. How is it 53:51 possible that people who are currently 53:53 stunted are expected to be the pillar 53:55 for exchanging a demographic bonus with 53:56 neighboring countries, for example, 53:58 that don't have problems with 53:59 corruption? So, once again, this debt 54:06 behind the debt, there is a political 54:08 design. There is a policy design that 54:12 plunges future generations into ruin 54:14 because of management that is not just 54:17 about the amount of debt, but 54:19 management that simply exploits 54:22 momentum. "Since there's COVID, okay, 54:25 let's widen the spread.""Since there's 54:27 COVID, secretly tell BI to print money. 54:29 ""Since there's COVID, the debt-based 54:32 development budget can actually be 54:34 shifted to cover deficits used for 54:36 unproductive things, right?" So, once 54:40 again it is actually important to 54:44 prepare by staying silent. Meaning, 54:48 there's no need to talk; just let this 54:51 reality unfold as part of a 54:53 sociological formula that is lowering 54:55 the government's legitimacy. This is 54:59 like a person with stage 4-plus cancer, 55:02 for example; if you're still trying to 55:05 treat it, what's the point? 55:09 Statistically, it can no longer be 55:10 cured. But people keep trying to treat 55:14 it—what for? Just let it be. Perform 55:17 euthanasia, if that were actually 55:20 allowed. So it is the same with the 55:23 government's debt chaos; just let it be 55:24 , because it has already surpassed 55:26 stage 4-plus. Therefore, it is better 55:30 to let it be so that a sociological and 55:33 political shift occurs, which will 55:36 allow us to recover as a nation. Now, 55:41 that is what I always push for, so that 55:44 in the absence of an opposition, PKS 55:47 should just voice it as a preparation 55:50 to produce new leadership, not to fix 55:53 the current leaders. So it is useless 55:57 for PKS or the Democrats to try and say 56:00 "we have this solution or that," or for 56:03 academics to try every day to convince 56:05 people that there are solutions that 56:07 are reliable and methodologically 56:10 accountable. Look, the palace is also 56:13 full of such economists. But the 56:16 difference is that the panicked 56:18 economists in the palace refuse to move 56:21 away from the textbook in front of them 56:24 called Nawa Cita. They don't use any 56:29 political economy analysis; it's not 56:31 there. What's there is Nawa Cita. The 56:34 Nawa Cita was essentially turned into a 56:37 new kind of economic text that no 56:38 longer reflects the original Nawa Cita 56:41 because the issue of justice was 56:42 removed from the concept. So, debt, 56:45 which in Bung Karno's mind was once a 56:48 tool of imperialism, and whose ideas 56:50 became the foundation of Nawa Cita, is 56:53 actually being used by President Jokowi 56:56 . That’s the irony of it, right? So, 56:59 once again, we might be experiencing a 57:02 crisis in our debt service ratio which 57:04 is growing, and that is dangerous. But 57:08 for me, DSR isn't debt service ratio, 57:11 but "debt stupidity ratio"—the ratio 57:17 of debt to stupidity—is actually what 57:19 DSR is an abbreviation for, and that is 57:22 what's getting smaller, meaning the 57:24 stupidity is growing. So, once again, 57:28 it's also good for us to take a 57:30 slightly different angle, which is to 57:33 let this process unfold naturally so 57:36 that the government can more quickly 57:39 experience demoralization and ideation. 57:43 I think that's it, while we also keep 57:45 in mind all the analyses that the 57:46 public actually trusts more, which is 57:48 the analysis from Mbak Yu. Thank you. 57:52 Thank you, Bung Rocky. I would like to 57:56 ask, it was interesting earlier 57:58 regarding debt, there is a government 58:00 policy design related to the philosophy 58:03 and principles of development policy. 58:08 And as we know, back during the reform 58:11 era, when we had an economic crisis, we 58:14 owed the IMF; it was mentioned in the 58:17 media that Mr. Habibie also stated 58:19 there were clauses that forced us to 58:22 restrain our economic policies. One of 58:27 them at that time was like, not to 58:30 further develop the Nusantara aircraft 58:33 industry. And we don't know with the 58:37 current debts, what the picture of 58:39 Indonesia's future will be because our 58:42 sovereignty could potentially be 58:44 disrupted. Now, seeing this condition, 58:47 how do you, Bung Rocky, see us having 58:49 to respond to this government policy? 58:53 I don't think there is international 58:55 pressure like in the past with the IMF, 58:58 where we had to submit a "blank note," 59:01 those blank receipts. We just told the 59:03 IMF to write the requirements 59:04 themselves, and we would just follow 59:06 them. We are not at that point, 59:07 actually, because that part is no 59:09 longer what the world is thinking about 59:11 . The world will certainly keep giving 59:14 loans because they know Indonesia is in 59:15 a difficult situation. So they raise 59:17 the interest rates, and Indonesia 59:19 cannot negotiate that, right? So, 59:22 actually, there is no problem anymore, 59:24 which is that we are already in that 59:26 trap even without an MOU; we are 59:28 already trapped there. Because 59:34 creditors assume that every debt 59:37 created by a state will definitely be 59:40 paid. There is no country in this world 59:42 that defaults on its debt; that's only 59:44 for stupid nations. So, especially for 59:46 Indonesia, creditors will keep the taps 59:48 open, saying, "Go ahead, take as much 59:49 as you want." They can take it, then 59:52 raise the interest rate a little, and 59:54 Indonesia falls into that trap. It's 59:57 different from the monetary crisis, 59:58 where we made an agreement with the IMF 1:00:00 and the IMF determined the conditions. 1:00:03 But the principle of*pacta sunt 1:00:05 servanda*in these civil debt relations 1:00:06 is no longer practiced, or rather no 1:00:08 longer needs to be practiced by the 1:00:10 state, because the state is already 1:00:11 trapped in it. So, the principle called 1:00:16 , uh, what is it, *rebus sic stantibus* 1:00:18 in international civil agreements, is 1:00:21 no longer necessary. The more 1:00:25 corruption occurs, the more donor/ 1:00:26 creditor countries think, "Go ahead and 1:00:29 be corrupt, you'll go bankrupt 1:00:30 eventually, and we will keep supplying 1:00:32 you." And when the time comes to 1:00:36 collect, they know, "Well, there's 1:00:38 still, uh, Papua, there's still 1:00:40 Kalimantan, there are 400 state-owned 1:00:42 enterprises, all sorts of things," 1:00:44 right? So this debt business game is 1:00:49 actually secretly more dangerous than, 1:00:53 uh, agreements with, uh, international 1:00:56 monetary institutions like the IMF in 1:00:59 1998, which were recorded as 1:01:02 inter-state agreements with 1:01:04 multilateral guarantees. Whereas now, 1:01:08 there aren't any. This is truly money, 1:01:10 this money is pure business money. This 1:01:14 debt has no, uh, calculation, uh, 1:01:17 political economic justice or anything 1:01:20 like that; it's truly a kind of global 1:01:22 casino where one day we will have been 1:01:25 robbed blind because our ability to 1:01:28 make predictions is not proportional to 1:01:30 , uh, the arrogance of power in 1:01:33 sniffing out which parts can still be 1:01:35 stolen from that debt. That is the 1:01:39 issue. Thank you. 1:01:41 Thank you, uh, Prof. One more question 1:01:44 before we, uh, go to Mr. Mardani. This 1:01:48 is related to, uh, the impact of the 1:01:50 debt itself, uh, moving forward, 1:01:53 because as it turns out, uh, by simple 1:01:55 logic, the growth of our GDP—our 1:01:58 gross domestic product—should be 1:02:00 greater than the debt growth rate. But 1:02:04 as it turns out, the debt growth rate 1:02:06 is higher than our GDP growth rate. 1:02:07 This is proven by our debt-to-GDP ratio 1:02:10 , which is getting larger over time. 1:02:14 Now, uh, uh, there is a latent danger, 1:02:17 uh, where in the future this nation 1:02:20 will be structurally poor and, uh, 1:02:23 unable to produce well, Prof. So, with, 1:02:26 uh, this condition, uh, Prof. Rocky, if 1:02:29 you were, uh, president of the 1:02:32 government, what policy would you take? 1:02:36 If tomorrow Prof. Rocky became 1:02:38 President of the Republic of Indonesia, 1:02:39 that was the standard prediction 1:02:41 earlier. Now, when setting policies 1:02:44 under these foreign debt conditions, 1:02:46 what is the most logical and ethical 1:02:48 policy that the government needs to 1:02:50 take to save the nation and the future 1:02:52 of our nation's children, Prof? 1:02:54 That’s easy. If I were president, I 1:02:56 would look for a high-quality advisor 1:02:58 named "Madam." Madam Social Aid would 1:03:01 be my advisor to determine—That's the 1:03:05 only issue. Because I just explained 1:03:09 that for us now, DSR is not Debt 1:03:11 Service Ratio, but Debt Stupidity Ratio 1:03:14 . A debt-to-stupidity ratio, so to 1:03:17 speak. That is what we should use now, 1:03:20 because those stupid policies are 1:03:22 exactly what caused our DSR to 1:03:25 skyrocket. Therefore, change DSR not to 1:03:29 Debt Service Ratio, but to Debt 1:03:31 Stupidity Ratio. Debt-to-stupidity 1:03:35 ratio. 1:03:36 Yeah. 1:03:38 Yes, because what we export, the income 1:03:40 we earn comes from stupidity, right? 1:03:43 Uh, that's the ratio, right? 1:03:46 We keep borrowing, but compared to our 1:03:48 ability to pay, there's no export. What 1:03:51 we export is stupidity. And that 1:03:53 stupidity is what the creditors read. 1:03:56 Because of that, creditors easily raise 1:03:58 the interest rates again, raising the 1:04:00 interest compared to other countries. 1:04:03 That's just easy, right? Alright, thank 1:04:07 you, Prof. We will continue later, and 1:04:09 thankfully, Mr. Mardani has now joined 1:04:11 us. Peace be upon you, Mr. Mardani. 1:04:13 And peace be upon you too, and God's 1:04:14 mercy and blessings. My apologies to 1:04:15 everyone, I just joined. Continuing on 1:04:18 good. Uh, earlier Mas Bima, Ms. Anis, 1:04:21 and uh Bung Roki have already presented 1:04:24 their views regarding this foreign debt 1:04:26 that keeps increasing over time. And 1:04:29 now, how does Mr. Mardani view this, 1:04:31 sir? 1:04:33 Yes. In the name of God, the Most 1:04:34 Gracious, the Most Merciful. Peace be 1:04:35 upon you, and God's mercy and blessings 1:04:37 . Praise be to God. May peace and 1:04:38 blessings be upon our Prophet Muhammad, 1:04:40 and thereafter. 1:04:41 Good evening and greetings of 1:04:43 prosperity to us all. Uh, 1:04:45 debt-stupidity ratio, right? Thank you, 1:04:49 Bung Roki, always enlightening. And, uh 1:04:52 , Mas Bima, thank you. Uh, it turns out 1:04:56 only 8%is for social assistance, and if 1:04:59 it's said to be for leverage, uh, it's 1:05:02 very far from reality. Uh, Ms. Anis 1:05:06 Byarwati, our heroine in Commission 11, 1:05:09 uh, keep speaking up, Ma'am. Uh, even 1:05:13 though Bung Roki says it's not 1:05:15 necessary, in my opinion, uh, the 2024 1:05:18 rotation cycle remains, and PKS has the 1:05:21 opportunity to keep, uh, firmly voicing 1:05:23 what is right. I only have three points 1:05:26 , Bang Haldi. The first is, everything 1:05:28 rises and falls on leadership. Yes, 1:05:31 leadership, leadership, leadership, yes 1:05:33 . Uh, the current condition is very 1:05:36 different. If, uh, the Philippines can 1:05:40 manage only 1.9%, right Mas Bima? How 1:05:44 can Indonesia be 6 point something, I 1:05:47 think it's, uh, fitting, Bung Roki's 1:05:49 debt-stupidity ratio is spot on. Now, 1:05:53 of course, this becomes a major note, 1:05:55 and for me, inevitably, leadership, 1:05:57 leadership, leadership is what is 1:05:59 decisive. Ms. Sri Mulyani, quote and 1:06:03 unquote, has many notes. Bima surely 1:06:06 has them, Ms. Anis has them. But 1:06:08 personally, until now, she still 1:06:10 refuses the Industry Minister's request 1:06:13 to zero out, uh, motor vehicle taxes. 1:06:17 Uh, she still has logic, still has 1:06:20 integrity to a certain extent. But when 1:06:24 faced with, uh, the logic of "just do 1:06:26 it," a logic that is actually 1:06:28 irrational, then I feel sorry for Ms. 1:06:31 Sri Mulyani and her team. Now, because 1:06:35 of that, uh, for all of us, Bang Haldi 1:06:38 and everyone, my view is every leader 1:06:40 must indeed prepare themselves, and uh, 1:06:43 what is happening now with the 1:06:45 Sovereign Wealth Fund, right Mas Bima, 1:06:48 uh, the Indonesian Investment Authority 1:06:50 . Uh, I'm a bit worried we are just 1:06:53 changing clothes. I'm a bit worried we 1:06:57 are 1:06:57 debt 1:06:59 Uh, while foreign debt might have 1:07:01 decreased, in reality, the debt has 1:07:03 shifted to groups that are more, uh, 1:07:05 invisible-handed and even more 1:07:07 dangerous. And because of that, uh, we 1:07:10 need to keep voicing this. Our debt 1:07:13 service ratio is already nearly 38%, 1:07:14 you know. Uh, private and state-owned 1:07:18 enterprise debt, which is already much 1:07:20 larger, could become a very dangerous 1:07:23 bubble because, uh, sometimes the data 1:07:26 is incomplete, uh, unchecked, and that 1:07:28 is very dangerous. Like, perhaps you 1:07:33 were surprised when Gojek was touted as 1:07:36 a national startup, but it turns out 1:07:39 the, uh, anatomy of its funding— 1:07:42 starting from Japan's Softbank, Alibaba 1:07:45 , and all the rest—actually shocks us 1:07:48 that Nadim's shares might only be a few 1:07:51 percent left. And this is a phenomenon, 1:07:57 a framework that keeps moving because, 1:08:00 fundamentally, geopolitics, competition 1:08:03 between nations, dwindling resources, 1:08:06 and the food, energy, and water crisis 1:08:09 continue, and that is why we need 1:08:12 leaders. Joe Biden, in my opinion, was 1:08:16 very bold, uh, during the inauguration 1:08:19 yesterday, emphasizing "United, United, 1:08:22 United" or "Unity, Unity, Unity," but 1:08:24 on his first day, his executive orders 1:08:27 immediately reversed all of Trump's 1:08:29 policies without hesitation. So, 1:08:32 everything rises and falls on 1:08:34 leadership. So, leadership, leadership, 1:08:36 leadership. Secondly, uh, my view is 1:08:39 that the devil is in the details. 1:08:43 Because of that, we in the House will 1:08:44 continue to serve as watchdogs. We will 1:08:46 continue to ask the public to keep 1:08:48 watching. It is a lie if they say this 1:08:51 debt is for leverage. It is a lie if 1:08:53 they say this debt is for social aid. 1:08:55 Because, as it turns out, the reality 1:08:57 is far from what was promised. And that 1:08:59 fact must be brought up and exposed. 1:09:01 The public must have the intelligence 1:09:03 to understand this matter. Lastly, the 1:09:05 third point, Bang Haldi. Perhaps Ms. 1:09:07 Anis will delve deeper into this later, 1:09:08 of course. Uh, we need to find 1:09:12 solutions for how, uh, this COVID-19 1:09:14 situation is quite tough, Ms. Anis, 1:09:16 isn't it? Uh, China has a V-curve, 1:09:21 right? Uh, efforts to rebound after 1:09:26 this COVID-19, some are V-shaped, some 1:09:28 are U-shaped, some are L-shaped, you 1:09:30 know. China is really cool, but when 1:09:33 they want to sell, other countries 1:09:35 aren't ready to buy yet. So, it remains 1:09:37 hindered, even though they are far 1:09:39 ahead of us. Vietnam is already up, 1:09:41 already positive. China is already 1:09:43 positive. Certainly, in this forum, we 1:09:46 need to immediately propose a roadmap 1:09:49 for facing, uh, the economic condition 1:09:51 after this COVID-19. That is all for my 1:09:55 introduction, Mang Haldi, and thank you 1:09:57 all, apologies for joining late. Yes, 1:10:01 thank you, Mr. Mardani. As the Chairman 1:10:04 of the DPP for Technology, Industry, 1:10:07 and Environment, I see that when debt 1:10:10 is used productively, it should be fine 1:10:13 , but the fact is Indonesia's debt is 1:10:16 growing while we are also experiencing 1:10:19 deindustrialization. When our 1:10:23 production capacity isn't improving 1:10:27 over time, our debt ratio and 1:10:30 debt-to-GDP ratio continue to increase. 1:10:36 This is becoming increasingly worrying. 1:10:39 How do you see it, Mr. Marin? 1:10:42 Innovation is a key word, finding new 1:10:46 sources of economic growth. Even the 1:10:51 latest studies suggest the green 1:10:53 economy is the future. Actually, with 1:10:57 COVID-19, perhaps Mas Bima can provide 1:10:59 more criticism for me or for all of us. 1:11:03 This economic research is an 1:11:05 opportunity for us to create a roadmap 1:11:08 for a green economy and green 1:11:09 development, which fits Indonesia's 1:11:12 conditions well. That is why PKS is 1:11:15 firm in rejecting the Omnibus Law, 1:11:17 which is "quote-unquote" Indonesia for 1:11:19 sale. The environment is for sale. And 1:11:22 that is very dangerous. Short-term wins 1:11:24 over long-term. So the keyword is 1:11:28 innovation, Bang Haldi; Gojek, for 1:11:29 instance, introduced innovation, even 1:11:32 if the capitalist system remains. But 1:11:36 we truly need to—we already have a 1:11:38 National Innovation System Law, in fact 1:11:41 . However, in practice, it is saddening 1:11:44 . During COVID-19, out of a 2 trillion 1:11:48 budget for BRIN (National Research and 1:11:51 Innovation Agency), the Ristek budget 1:11:54 was the most heavily cut, leaving only 1:11:57 a few hundred billion for the year. If 1:12:01 I recall, out of 500 billion remaining 1:12:04 —nearly 75%was slashed—yet when 1:12:07 facing a crisis, you need intelligent 1:12:10 minds, because "you cannot find a new 1:12:12 land with an old map." You cannot find 1:12:16 a new island with an old map. Research 1:12:19 and innovation, that synergy, is what 1:12:21 needs to be strengthened. For example, 1:12:25 Pfizer was able to act quickly because 1:12:28 it collaborated with BioNTech, and 1:12:31 BioNTech is a private entity. Two 1:12:37 German citizens of Turkish descent who 1:12:39 were diligent, and they succeeded. 1:12:43 Without innovation, we will end up in a 1:12:47 rut. Currently, the Omnibus Law is 1:12:52 actually inviting waste-heavy 1:12:54 industries to come here. Meanwhile, 1:12:58 other countries have already abandoned 1:13:00 those traditional, waste-heavy 1:13:01 manufacturing industries. Because now, 1:13:05 with the automotive industry, and 1:13:08 similar sectors shifting due to 1:13:11 work-from-home, "work-cation," and new 1:13:14 lifestyles and work styles, we must 1:13:17 find what products will drive future 1:13:20 economic growth. Certainly, our base is 1:13:24 agriculture. I just returned from 1:13:26 Makassar, and everyone is crying out 1:13:28 because there is no fertilizer during 1:13:29 the planting season. Whereas 33 1:13:31 trillion has already been allocated for 1:13:33 fertilizer. It's not just Makassar; 1:13:35 fertilizer is missing in other places 1:13:36 too. And this has been going on for 1:13:38 decades. And uh sometimes, uh, the 1:13:42 issue is classic, like high waves 1:13:44 preventing us from getting, uh, 1:13:47 fertilizer, the ships can't dock. This 1:13:50 is something—again, everything rises 1:13:52 and falls on leadership. Second, of 1:13:54 course, Bang Haldi, we must fix our 1:13:56 education system; without a solid 1:13:58 education system, without an 1:14:00 emancipatory education system, without 1:14:02 an education system that gives schools 1:14:05 the freedom to set their own targets. 1:14:08 We will continue to be a losing nation. 1:14:11 We will continue to be a nation that 1:14:14 begs and spends more than we earn, just 1:14:17 as Ms. Anis said, and instead of a 1:14:20 golden Indonesia in 2045, we might 1:14:22 actually be facing a mortgaged 1:14:25 Indonesia in 2045. Therefore, to all 1:14:29 friends, come on, don't be afraid to 1:14:31 speak up as long as you have data, 1:14:33 don't be afraid to analyze as long as 1:14:35 we can think, and don't be afraid to 1:14:37 express opinions because this country 1:14:39 guarantees freedom of speech. And, uh, 1:14:43 for that, Indonesian Leaders Talk will 1:14:45 always be here to be a part of public 1:14:48 education. Thank you, Mas Bima. Thank 1:14:50 you, Ms. Anis and Bung Roki. Continue. 1:14:52 I have to go to this first. I haven't 1:14:55 reported this yet. Thank you. 1:14:57 Assalamu'alaikum. Go ahead. 1:14:58 Wa'alaikumsalam. Thank you, Mr. Mardani 1:15:00 . Now I want to go to Mas Bima. 1:15:02 Following up from Mr. Mardani. Earlier, 1:15:05 Mas Bima, we know that America once 1:15:08 experienced times of economic crisis, 1:15:10 the Great Depression, around the 1930s. 1:15:15 And at that time, uh, during those 1:15:17 major economic crisis problems, their 1:15:19 great depression, influential 1:15:21 economists, economic theories, and new 1:15:23 and innovative economic sciences were 1:15:25 born. So that later, slowly, uh, 1:15:28 America managed to overcome economic 1:15:31 problems, Cold War issues, and became a 1:15:33 superpower nation. Now, according to 1:15:36 Mas Bima here as an economist regarding 1:15:41 the current economy, what are the 1:15:43 possible solutions for us to escape 1:15:45 this debt trap? Uh, because on the 1:15:49 other hand, if there is a concern by 1:15:51 the government, if we don't go into 1:15:53 debt, we can't, uh, live or produce, 1:15:55 right? But on the other hand, we have 1:15:58 to get out of these debt and economic 1:16:00 problems, right? What are the 1:16:03 innovations that need to be made, 1:16:05 economic policy innovations, so that, 1:16:07 uh, Indonesia can get out of this debt 1:16:09 strangulation, Mas Bima? Yes, so during 1:16:13 this pandemic, there have been two 1:16:16 major trends. I will connect to what 1:16:19 Mr. Mardani said earlier. The first is 1:16:22 the trend related to social justice. 1:16:26 It's everywhere; Black Lives Matter in 1:16:28 the United States, yes, in Europe also 1:16:30 anti-establishment, anti-capitalist. 1:16:34 Currently, uh, labor movements are also 1:16:36 rising in many countries in the West, 1:16:38 and then in Vietnam and other countries 1:16:41 . So there is a concern that this 1:16:44 pandemic has taught us about social 1:16:46 justice. This is indeed one of the 1:16:49 important foundations of social justice 1:16:51 , as is Pancasila. Now, in this context 1:16:53 , how does it relate to the debt trap 1:16:56 so we can break free from it? One way 1:17:00 is by seeing that the inequality in 1:17:02 Indonesia, which is already quite 1:17:04 severe, can actually be an opportunity 1:17:07 for the state to reduce inequality 1:17:10 while also pursuing taxes that the 1:17:12 wealthy have yet to settle. Even though 1:17:16 they’ve been given the chance with 1:17:17 the tax amnesty, all those scattered 1:17:24 assets can be verified, then tracked 1:17:27 down. There is already data exchange 1:17:30 between countries, that*automatic 1:17:31 exchange of information*. So now, the 1:17:34 Director General of Taxes’ desk is 1:17:36 actually full. There is plenty of data 1:17:39 accessible to pursue whether these 1:17:41 conglomerates are tax-compliant or not. 1:17:44 Go after them. First, to increase the 1:17:47 tax ratio. But don’t try to increase 1:17:50 the tax ratio by chasing the small fish 1:17:52 . Like Ms. Anis said, MSMEs are 1:17:57 struggling, feeling burdened by taxes. 1:18:01 So don't target those who are already 1:18:04 struggling, like when the stamp duty 1:18:06 went up from Rp 6,000 to Rp 10,000. I 1:18:09 don’t even think that was very 1:18:10 important. In the end, sticking a 3,000 1:18:13 and a 6,000 stamp isn't that 1:18:14 significant for state revenue. So there 1:18:18 is a big opportunity for social justice 1:18:20 in pursuing those taxes. Second, 1:18:22 regarding the opportunity in Indonesia 1:18:25 that Mr. Mardani mentioned earlier 1:18:27 about the green economy, I agree 100%. 1:18:32 We all see that the pandemic also 1:18:34 taught us that this relates to 1:18:36 environmental issues; the natural 1:18:39 disasters happening in several places 1:18:41 lately in Indonesia are also linked to 1:18:44 climate change. Now, Indonesia actually 1:18:47 has one of the largest resources for a 1:18:50 green economy. That’s why many 1:18:52 European countries are envious of 1:18:54 Indonesia. We have forests, and we have 1:18:57 vast agricultural land. Unfortunately, 1:19:01 it isn’t managed optimally, so when 1:19:04 the trend shifted, other countries 1:19:06 invested in renewable energy. Including 1:19:10 the Green New Deal, which Joe Biden is 1:19:12 now partially implementing in Indonesia 1:19:14 . We were caught off guard, unprepared 1:19:18 with the schemes, or how to provide 1:19:21 incentives, so we just blindly followed 1:19:23 along. Yet, we should have been 1:19:27 preparing for renewable energy five 1:19:29 years ago, including electric vehicles 1:19:31 and their components. Now, there is a 1:19:35 request from the Minister of Industry 1:19:38 to zero out taxes for fossil fuel-based 1:19:41 vehicles. While other countries are 1:19:44 talking about electric cars, we want to 1:19:45 provide incentives for fossil fuels 1:19:47 instead. Sometimes things just don't 1:19:50 connect, including the Job Creation Law 1:19:52 . While the world is moving elsewhere, 1:19:54 we are giving incentives to the 1:19:55 extractive sector. The Mineral and Coal 1:19:57 Mining Law is the same. Where is it 1:19:59 headed? The world is heading in a 1:20:00 different direction. So, there are many 1:20:02 things that don’t align. Let’s set 1:20:04 things straight. This is one piece of 1:20:06 input that I think is important, so why 1:20:08 ? So that our economy reaches a scale 1:20:10 that is large enough. At the very least 1:20:13 , if we can't pay off the debt by 2050, 1:20:15 let's maintain the DSR. That's the 1:20:17 worst-case scenario. One of the most 1:20:20 basic efforts is to ensure GDP growth 1:20:22 remains higher so the repayment 1:20:25 capacity increases. That’s what it 1:20:27 ultimately comes down to. But, well, 1:20:29 does the government want to do that, 1:20:31 given their policies are often 1:20:33 contradictory, Mas Saldi? 1:20:35 Yes. Thank you, Mas Bima and colleagues 1:20:39 . We have arrived at the end of 1:20:41 tonight's Ind Stok program. Each 1:20:45 speaker has shared their insights, and 1:20:47 now we... 1:20:49 May I add a little something, Mas? 1:20:51 Oh, of course, please go ahead. Please, 1:20:56 what was it? It was interesting what 1:21:00 Mas Bima just said regarding how rarely 1:21:03 this comes up. I was thinking, 1:21:07 regarding the discussion on inequality, 1:21:11 there is actually a study related to 1:21:14 how we can get out of debt. The World 1:21:19 Bank published a study in 2016 about 1:21:24 inequality in Indonesia. Titled " 1:21:28 Indonesia's Rising Divide." This study 1:21:33 shows that social inequality is rising 1:21:36 in Indonesia, where only 10%of the 1:21:39 population controls 77%of the nation's 1:21:42 wealth. And even worse, the top 1%of 1:21:48 Indonesia's population owns half of all 1:21:51 the nation's wealth. This is quite 1:21:54 alarming, coming from the World Bank. 1:21:57 So, this is the study they published. 1:22:01 Looking at this is truly disheartening. 1:22:04 Furthermore, Oxfam stated in 2017 that 1:22:07 the wealth of Indonesia's four richest 1:22:11 people exceeds the wealth of the bottom 1:22:14 40%of the population, or about 100 1:22:17 million people. So, the wealth of these 1:22:21 four richest people in Indonesia 1:22:23 exceeds that of 100 million of the 1:22:25 poorest residents. And the rising 1:22:29 income inequality between the rich and 1:22:32 the poor—that was from 2017, and 1:22:34 post-pandemic, it has likely increased 1:22:37 even more. But we know that in 1:22:41 Indonesia, there are many rich people. 1:22:43 Well, not many, but a few rich people. 1:22:45 Yet their wealth exceeds that of 100 1:22:48 million people. So, what about 1:22:51 burden-sharing by the state? What if 1:22:55 the state engaged in burden-sharing 1:22:57 with these wealthy individuals? These 1:23:00 rich people could be asked to help 1:23:02 finance that debt. In Islamic economics 1:23:08 , my background, when the state faced a 1:23:12 deficit, the Prophet would ask—though 1:23:15 the population was different then, as 1:23:18 they were devout. So when the Prophet 1:23:23 asked the wealthy to help, they gave 1:23:26 voluntarily. Uthman bin Affan provided 1:23:29 supplies that could last the entire 1:23:32 population of Medina for a year. Abu 1:23:35 Bakar gave all his wealth, Umar gave 1:23:37 half of his wealth, like that. So there 1:23:40 is a contribution from the wealthy to 1:23:42 help fund state expenditures, like that 1:23:45 . So that the deficit is handled by the 1:23:48 wealthy. So that mechanism is actually, 1:23:51 why can't we, what is a proposal, can 1:23:54 it be applied in Indonesia? Because 1:23:57 from this data, what is it called? 10% 1:23:59 of the population controls 77%of the 1:24:02 nation's wealth. Then the richest 1%of 1:24:06 the population owns half of all 1:24:07 existing national wealth. Then another 1:24:11 study shows the four richest people 1:24:13 have wealth exceeding that of 40%of the 1:24:15 population. So surely the data exists. 1:24:19 Our country has that data. Ask for it, 1:24:21 this country is yours too, and you 1:24:24 benefit from, from us. So, what is it 1:24:28 called, push people like this to help 1:24:31 fund the state deficit. And I think 1:24:35 this is a great breakthrough if it can 1:24:37 be done. That’s just a little 1:24:39 addition, Mas. 1:24:40 Alright, thank you, Bu Anis. Bu Anis, 1:24:44 if you could also please give your 1:24:46 closing statement for the end of this 1:24:48 show. 1:24:52 Yes, one thing earlier, when we have 1:24:56 debt, it is difficult to become an 1:25:00 independent nation because that debt is 1:25:04 not given freely, but is conditional. 1:25:10 And there are studies that say debt is 1:25:13 one of the tools of imperialism. Yes, 1:25:17 Theresa Hayter wrote a book in 1971 1:25:20 based on her research, "Aid as 1:25:23 Imperialism." So, the provision of 1:25:27 foreign debt has conditions, the first 1:25:29 is the purchase of goods and services 1:25:32 from the lending country. Then the 1:25:35 removal of freedom in implementing 1:25:36 certain economic policies. As Mas Hadi 1:25:39 mentioned earlier, how our aircraft 1:25:41 industry was killed off. Then the 1:25:43 demand to implement economic policies 1:25:46 based on the wishes of the lender. So 1:25:48 it is not good to be used to debt, and 1:25:51 it is not cool at all if our country 1:25:53 gets used to debt. And we continue to 1:25:57 voice this. So indeed, every one of us 1:26:00 citizens has a responsibility for 1:26:02 Indonesia. If the government is slow to 1:26:06 listen, we must keep trying ways until 1:26:10 this country can return to being a 1:26:14 sovereign nation. And one way is by 1:26:18 offering the last proposal, which is to 1:26:21 place a burden on those who have excess 1:26:24 wealth in Indonesia to contribute. The 1:26:28 state should ask, or if necessary force 1:26:30 , the wealthy in Indonesia whose wealth 1:26:32 exceeds that of 100 million people to 1:26:34 help fund the state deficit so we don't 1:26:36 need to borrow from other countries. 1:26:39 That is all, Mas. 1:26:41 Alright, thank you Bu Anis for your 1:26:43 closing. Next, Bung Rocky for closing 1:26:47 ideas. Yes, that's a good point from 1:26:52 Mrs. Anis of PKS regarding the 1:26:54 burden-sharing required to achieve 1:26:57 justice. But that assumes there is a 1:27:01 president who understands, uh, matters 1:27:04 of justice. Earlier, Brother Hali and 1:27:08 Bima mentioned the Great Depression, 1:27:11 and we must remember that...America was 1:27:17 finally able to emerge from the Great 1:27:19 Depression of the 1930s just before the 1:27:22 Second World War...because of President 1:27:26 Roosevelt. 1:27:28 That's right. And Roosevelt read 1:27:30 Keynes's books. In fact, Keynes 1:27:37 suggested that if America won the war 1:27:40 and Europe was destroyed, America had a 1:27:42 moral responsibility to fix Europe. 1:27:46 What was the famous book title? The 1:27:49 Economic Consequences of the Peace. 1:27:52 Once peace was achieved, America had to 1:27:54 ...nurture its former enemies. So, it's 1:27:58 actually quite strange when you think 1:27:59 about it. America was the victor, so 1:28:02 why would it need to help Russia— 1:28:04 sorry, help Germany, Japan, and Italy, 1:28:06 which were its enemies? But because 1:28:10 there was justice in Keynes's thinking, 1:28:13 Roosevelt delivered a speech with a 1:28:16 principle that was fundamentally human, 1:28:19 even referred to as the "Second Bill of 1:28:22 Rights" in American history; it's very 1:28:25 famous. So, at that time, there was an 1:28:31 excellent agreement where Roosevelt's 1:28:35 administration held discussions with 1:28:38 intellectuals from Harvard and Chicago. 1:28:44 Even though the schools of thought were 1:28:47 different—Chicago was filled with 1:28:49 Keynesians and Hayek-style neoliberals, 1:28:52 and Harvard with Keynesians—there was 1:28:54 an intellectual dialogue, and Roosevelt 1:28:57 paid attention to those conversations. 1:29:01 Then he decided on the "New Deal." And 1:29:04 because of that, Europe was later 1:29:06 assisted by the Marshall Plan, which 1:29:08 was based on Keynes's analysis that for 1:29:10 the world to grow again, those who were 1:29:12 defeated had to be helped. That was the 1:29:15 principle. Now, that ethical principle 1:29:18 is what has been held worldwide as a 1:29:21 way to actually resolve poverty. So, we 1:29:25 take inspiration from Keynesian 1:29:27 policies regarding injustice, but in 1:29:29 our case, as explained by Mrs. Anis 1:29:31 earlier, it is the exact opposite 1:29:33 because money intended for the people 1:29:36 is being robbed by the state to bail 1:29:38 out conglomerates. This is just absurd. 1:29:42 I don't know how we can resolve this 1:29:45 because President Jokowi certainly 1:29:48 hasn't read "The Economic Consequences 1:29:50 of the Peace" or any, uh, what do you 1:29:53 call them, more modern distribution 1:29:56 theories. So, we want there to be 1:30:00 intellectual discourse in the cabinet 1:30:01 because there is also the potential for 1:30:03 a global crisis. So once again, 1:30:07 Roosevelt emerged with the "New Deal" 1:30:10 principle. Well, maybe we need a new 1:30:12 president. Thank you. Thank you. That 1:30:16 was cool, Mrs. Moki, with the closing 1:30:17 ideas. Thank you. Next, over to Mas 1:30:20 Bima to provide his closing ideas. 1:30:22 Please go ahead. 1:30:24 I actually want to give some homework 1:30:27 to the brothers and the lady from PKS. 1:30:30 Ready. Ready. 1:30:32 Yes, brother. So, one of these things 1:30:35 relates to the sovereign wealth fund; 1:30:37 it seems not many parties scrutinized 1:30:39 it from the start because, during the 1:30:41 Job Creation Law process, it was one of 1:30:44 the smoothest compared to labor, 1:30:46 environment, and others. Now, with the 1:30:50 management of assets reaching thousands 1:30:52 of trillions, the model won't stray far 1:30:54 from issuing debt, but the collateral 1:30:56 is state assets, state-owned enterprise 1:30:58 assets, plus government assets. So, 1:31:02 this is a mega-project to attract debt 1:31:05 or loans in amounts even greater than 1:31:08 the current capacity. So, perhaps this 1:31:12 will have longer-term effects if there 1:31:14 could be studies related to the 1:31:16 sovereign wealth fund. Because in 1:31:18 Indonesia, this is strange. What is 1:31:21 called a sovereign wealth fund in many 1:31:23 countries is usually a surplus from 1:31:25 their resources. In Indonesia, it's not 1:31:28 ; it’s used to draw debt into 1:31:29 Indonesia by collateralizing its 1:31:31 resources. So it's not from the surplus 1:31:34 , but from the collateral of the 1:31:36 resources. So, I think that’s all 1:31:38 from me; the rest is clear enough. 1:31:41 Thank you, Bang Rocky, Pak Mardani, Bu 1:31:43 Anis. Regarding the Panjaitan issue 1:31:45 earlier, I followed the discussion, and 1:31:46 it was quite exciting. Thank you. Peace 1:31:48 be upon you, and Allah's mercy and 1:31:49 blessings. 1:31:49 And peace be upon you too. Thank you, 1:31:51 Mas Wima. And finally, Pak Mardani, you 1:31:53 are invited for your closing ideas. 1:31:56 Thanks, Bang Aldi. Uh, Mas Bima, I 1:31:59 accept your message regarding the 1:32:01 sovereign wealth fund because in 1:32:04 Malaysia, the 1MDB scandal was what 1:32:06 made Najib lose. Uh, Bu Anis, we must 1:32:11 really watch over that. Uh, don't let 1:32:14 it become a new type of, quote-unquote, 1:32:17 embezzlement and robbery of state money 1:32:20 without any transparency and 1:32:22 accountability. I only have two points, 1:32:25 Bang Aldi. First, once again, we need a 1:32:28 commitment from the top leader. When 1:32:32 you are on the top, you are alone. If 1:32:36 Pak Jokowi is president, whoever is 1:32:38 president, you will be alone, and you 1:32:41 will only be with your God and your 1:32:44 conscience. This crisis cannot be 1:32:49 solved, this debt issue or state 1:32:52 management cannot be resolved when we 1:32:55 do not have independence in making 1:32:57 decisions. There are many mafias 1:33:00 surrounding them. The high-cost economy 1:33:04 eventually leads to handing out 1:33:07 commissioner positions or dividing up, 1:33:10 in quotes, "plundering grounds" after 1:33:13 winning. Now, Pak Jokowi is in his 1:33:18 second term; excuse me, Pak Jokowi, 1:33:20 let's be brave in making decisions that 1:33:22 are truly based on the people, but the 1:33:25 people who actually exist, not the 1:33:27 people perceived through data that 1:33:29 might have been manipulated. So, top 1:33:34 leaders must have a bold commitment. 1:33:39 Earlier, Bung Rocky mentioned how 1:33:41 Lincoln, even though many conglomerates 1:33:44 and landlords opposed the abolition of 1:33:47 slavery, from the time he was a senator 1:33:50 until he became president, his task was 1:33:53 only one: free the slaves, free the 1:33:56 slaves, free the slaves. Why? Because 1:34:01 he knows that in facing this crisis, 1:34:04 the best guidance—while technical 1:34:06 studies and strategic studies may exist 1:34:09 —is primarily to hold fast to the 1:34:12 truth and one's conscience. Leaders who 1:34:17 hold firmly to ethics, to conscience, 1:34:19 to the truth, and to the interests of 1:34:22 the people—those are the true leaders 1:34:24 . This debt problem will be solved, and 1:34:28 COVID will also be resolved if they 1:34:30 have a courageous leader. There is so 1:34:33 much that must be corrected, and that 1:34:35 courage to hold to the truth gives them 1:34:37 abundant, overflowing energy. Prayers 1:34:40 from the common people and prayers and 1:34:42 support from above. Secondly, of course 1:34:45 , to our ministers in the DPR, Mas Bima 1:34:47 , and Bung Roki, it’s extraordinary. 1:34:50 We must truly play our part. There are 1:34:54 no thugs among the brave, but there 1:34:58 will be thugs among the cowardly and 1:35:01 the weak. That is why Imam Ibn 1:35:04 Taymiyyah said that being ignorant and 1:35:07 being weak is just as sinful as being 1:35:09 tyrannical. No one can be a tyrant. Mr. 1:35:12 Jokowi would not become a tyrant if his 1:35:14 people were brave. If we are brave. Of 1:35:17 course, a courage that is based on data 1:35:19 . Be careful with hoaxes. I do not 1:35:21 agree with hoaxes. I do not agree with 1:35:24 an emotional mindset. We must be 1:35:26 rational. We must be brave and rational 1:35:29 . And because of that, God willing, 1:35:32 Indonesia Leaders Talk will continue to 1:35:34 be present to serve the Indonesian 1:35:36 people with fundamental, quality 1:35:38 studies for our common interest. 1:35:41 Because it cannot just be PKS alone, it 1:35:43 cannot just be PKS and the Democrats. 1:35:46 We also hope for people from PDIP, 1:35:48 Golkar, PAN, and all of us from NU, 1:35:50 Muhammadiyah, whoever you are who feel 1:35:52 you own this country, let’s unite. 1:35:56 PKS has the concept of an island of 1:35:59 integrity. Whoever you are, wherever 1:36:01 you are, whatever you are, if you have 1:36:03 integrity, let us unite. Guard this 1:36:06 country and save this country. That’s 1:36:10 it, Bang Haldi. Thank you, Bang Roki, 1:36:12 Mas Bima, Bu Anis. Peace be upon you, 1:36:14 and Allah's mercy and blessings. 1:36:15 And upon you be peace, and Allah's 1:36:17 mercy and blessings. Thank you, Mr. 1:36:18 Mardani. And finally 1:36:21 Sir, I would like to answer the 1:36:23 homework from Mas Bima. 1:36:24 Oh, please, Ma'am. 1:36:25 Regarding 1:36:27 Ma'am that 1:36:30 there's a lot of homework, Ma'am. 1:36:32 No. Just regarding the last point 1:36:34 earlier, there is indeed a lot, that 1:36:36 the investment management institution, 1:36:39 the SWF, was one of the points we 1:36:41 strongly rejected when we discussed the 1:36:44 Omnibus Law on Job Creation. So, PKS 1:36:47 strongly rejected the existence of the 1:36:50 LPI, which not only relates to managing 1:36:53 our government investments—which are 1:36:56 usually managed by the DJKN, the 1:36:58 Minister of Finance. But this is 1:37:00 forming a new institution with an 1:37:02 initial capital that is also insane, 1:37:05 right. And what is worse later is that 1:37:08 while audits have previously been done 1:37:10 by the BPK, this LPI/SWF is only 1:37:12 audited by a public accounting firm. So 1:37:15 , we do see this, uh, and we were very 1:37:17 firm in voicing our stance, but the 1:37:19 political process took its course. Uh, 1:37:21 PKS rejected the Job Creation Law, uh, 1:37:23 and besides the Sovereign Wealth Fund ( 1:37:25 LPI), there were many others. But I 1:37:27 remember the LPI issue because I was 1:37:29 part of the team at the time that, uh, 1:37:31 pushed for it. So, uh, we had already 1:37:33 made efforts, right, Mas Bima, uh, at 1:37:36 that time. Uh, but, uh, the political 1:37:38 process happened and then, uh, the Job 1:37:40 Creation Law was enacted, and then the 1:37:42 mandate of the Job Creation Law was 1:37:44 implemented. Uh, then there is, uh, the 1:37:48 LPI now, then there are candidates, and 1:37:50 , uh, word is, uh, three people have 1:37:52 passed. Uh, la haula wala quwata illa 1:37:55 billah, yeah. Uh, but indeed, uh, it 1:37:57 still, it still must be monitored, yes. 1:37:59 But what was conveyed, that, we had 1:38:00 already worked on when the discussion 1:38:02 about the LPI was in, uh, the Omnibus 1:38:04 Job Creation Law. That is all, Mas Ali. 1:38:06 Thank you. 1:38:07 Thank you, Bu Anis. Uh, keep up the 1:38:09 spirit in Commission XI of the House of 1:38:11 Representatives in overseeing economic 1:38:12 and financial policies. 1:38:14 On Wednesday, God willing, we will have 1:38:15 a meeting with the LPI. 1:38:17 Wow, ready. Maybe later you could help 1:38:19 share the results of the meeting to the 1:38:22 public, Ma'am, okay? Now, 1:38:24 okay, Ma'am. Uh, colleagues, we have 1:38:28 reached the end of the program. At the 1:38:31 end here, I would like to tell a little 1:38:33 , uh, story that is somewhat similar to 1:38:35 the Roosevelt story told earlier by 1:38:36 Bung Rocky. I got the story from 1:38:40 someone who saw it firsthand. Uh, 1:38:42 during the '98 reform, during President 1:38:45 Habibie's time, at that time, uh, 1:38:47 Indonesia was in a peaking economic 1:38:50 crisis, a monetary crisis, yes, the 1:38:52 rupiah hit 16,000. President Habibie at 1:38:55 that time invited intellectuals, 1:38:58 Indonesian economic experts, the top 1:39:01 economists, to, uh, ask for 1:39:03 recommendations and thoughts on what 1:39:06 the solution was to resolve this policy 1:39:09 . He even went as far as asking for 1:39:13 reference books that he could study 1:39:15 himself so he could learn economics 1:39:17 quickly, and then he synthesized those 1:39:19 books provided by the economists into 1:39:21 an economic policy that he adopted as 1:39:24 the President of the Republic of 1:39:26 Indonesia. And as a result of all that, 1:39:31 we witnessed how, in his hands, 1:39:33 Indonesia's economy, which was very 1:39:35 dire at the time, began to stabilize 1:39:38 again. The rupiah went from 16,000 and 1:39:41 was able to stabilize back to the range 1:39:44 of 8,000 to 9,000. And that is what a 1:39:48 good, great leader does. Uh, just like 1:39:52 what happened during America's Great 1:39:54 Depression in the 1930s, Roosevelt also 1:39:56 did that with intellectuals who firmly 1:39:58 upheld the principles of justice and 1:39:59 scientific truth. Hopefully, uh, our 1:40:03 country, our nation, will one day be 1:40:06 led by leaders like Roosevelt and Mr. 1:40:09 Habibie during these times of crisis. 1:40:12 Thank you. Uh, see you again on Indal 1:40:15 Stok, uh, next week, Friday night at 8 1:40:18 PM on the same channel. We end it. 1:40:22 Peace be upon you, and Allah's mercy 1:40:23 and blessings. 1:40:24 And peace be upon you, and Allah's 1:40:25 mercy and blessings. Thank you. Yes, 1:40:28 thank you. Always, ah. 
