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0:06 Brail TV in Allah has grasped the most 0:17 trustworthy handhold with no break in 0:23 it. And Allah is Hearing and Knowing. 0:29 Allah is the ally of those who believe. 0:33 He brings them out from darknesses into 0:36 the light. And those who disbelieve- 0:42 their allies are Taghut. They take them 0:46 out of the light into darknesses. Those 0:51 are the companions of the Fire; they 0:56 will abide therein eternally. Allah the 1:00 Almighty has spoken the truth. Peace be 1:03 upon you, and Allah's mercy and 1:04 blessings. 1:06 And peace be upon you, and Allah's 1:08 mercy and blessings. 1:10 Dear leaders and aspiring leaders in 1:12 Indonesia and abroad. Welcome back to 1:14 the Indal Leaders Talk, which tonight 1:17 enters its 190th edition, raising the 1:20 theme of Indonesia's Golden Economy, or 1:22 is it an anxious one? Friends, tomorrow 1:27 we will commemorate the Independence 1:31 Day of the Republic of Indonesia, 1:34 August 17th, 2024. And we are currently 1:40 at the end of President Jokowi's 1:43 administration, and earlier, President 1:46 Jokowi's speech outlined the 1:49 development plans he has carried out 1:52 over his 10 years or two terms as 1:55 president, as well as the long-term 1:58 development plan towards 2045, the 2:01 Golden Indonesia vision, my friends. 2:07 This year is the era of presidential 2:09 transition. On October 20th, a new 2:13 president, Mr. Prabowo, will be 2:15 inaugurated. But up until now, amidst 2:20 the situation of several presidential 2:23 successions, Mr. Prabowo will soon 2:25 become the eighth president. Has 2:29 Indonesia become better? Are the goals 2:33 of the state, as aspired to in the 2:36 Preamble of the 1945 Constitution, 2:41 where one of the goals is to prosper 2:44 the nation's life and also educate the 2:48 nation's life. And Indonesia has also 2:53 compiled the 2045 long-term plan with 2:56 the theme Golden Indonesia 2045, where 3:00 the vision for Indonesia 2045 is to 3:03 become a sovereign, advanced, and also 3:07 sustainable nation. Now, with the 3:11 Golden Indonesia tagline, how is our 3:15 actual condition as we commemorate 3:19 Indonesia's Independence Day at this 3:23 time? For that, we have speakers with 3:27 us to review and reflect. If earlier 3:31 today Mr. Jokowi stated his version of 3:34 how the development of Indonesia has 3:36 been carried out over the last 10 years 3:38 , as well as the current conditions and 3:41 plans for next year and up to 2045. 3:46 Tonight, we want to look from a more 3:48 objective perspective from the experts. 3:51 Is Indonesia on the track? What are the 3:54 main problems currently being faced by 3:56 the Indonesian nation? And also, what 3:59 are the priority programs that must be 4:01 carried out by the new President, Mr. 4:04 Prabowo, so that Indonesia does not 4:06 fall further behind other countries? 4:10 For that, our first speaker is present, 4:12 Mr. Nailul Huda, Director of Digital 4:15 Economy at Celios. Peace be upon you, 4:17 Mr. Nailul. Then also present with us 4:23 Brother 4:24 yes. Thank you for attending the ILT 4:26 event for the umpteenth time, and also 4:28 Mr. Agus Eko Nugroho, an economist from 4:30 BRIN. Peace be upon you, Mr. Agus. Both 4:33 of you. 4:35 And peace be upon you too. Are you 4:36 healthy? 4:37 Healthy, thank God, sir. Uh, thank you 4:40 for attending the Indal Stok program, 4:43 and God willing, joining us later will 4:45 be our hosts for Industal Stok, Mr. 4:48 Mardani Ali Sera and also Bung Rocky 4:50 Gerung. Because, uh, both of them 4:53 currently have another event happening 4:55 in parallel. Okay, uh, for that, let's 4:59 just get started before we begin our 5:01 discussion tonight. Oh, Mr. Mardani is 5:04 already here. Assalamualaikum, Mr. 5:05 Mardani. Yes. 5:10 Alright. Uh, for that, before we start 5:13 the Indal Stok program tonight, we 5:15 would like to express our deepest 5:17 gratitude to all the loyal viewers of 5:20 the Stok. Both domestically and abroad. 5:23 And also to our colleagues in the media 5:26 and journalists who are always, uh, 5:28 watching, covering, and reporting on 5:30 this event. This Industal Stok program 5:33 can be watched live right now through 5:35 live streaming on, uh, Mardani Ali Sera 5:38 , PKS TV, and also Rasil TV. Uh, and it 5:41 can also be listened to via the Rasil 5:44 radio network in Jabodetabek and 5:46 several radio networks that collaborate 5:48 with Rasil in several cities across 5:51 Indonesia. Alright, let's start, uh, 5:55 our event tonight, uh, with the theme, 5:58 uh, Indonesian Economy, Golden 6:00 Indonesia or Anxious Indonesia. Mr. 6:04 Mardani, you have the floor. Wait, I'll 6:12 go out for a moment. Thank you, Bang 6:33 Haldi. Excuse me, Mas Nailul. And Mas 6:38 Agus Eko. In the name of Allah, the 6:41 Most Gracious, the Most Merciful. Peace 6:42 be upon you, and Allah's mercy and 6:44 blessings. All praise is due to Allah. 6:47 O Allah, send prayers upon our master 6:49 Muhammad. Furthermore. Good evening and 6:52 greetings of prosperity to us all. I am 6:56 very happy that Indonesia Leaders Stok 6:59 is discussing the theme of the 7:01 Indonesian economy, between the spirit 7:04 of a Golden Indonesia and the reality 7:07 of an Anxious Indonesia. Perhaps Mas 7:11 Nailul and Mas Agus will detail it 7:12 later, but I will just mention three 7:14 things. First, Mas Agus and Mas Nailul, 7:18 leaders and future leaders. We have 7:23 problems regarding the depth, uh, the 7:26 quality, uh, of our economy. We see how 7:35 our workforce is increasingly being 7:37 pushed into the informal sector. Yes, 7:42 uh, Mas Nailul and Mas Agus, maybe it 7:44 needs to be unpacked later when Mr. 7:47 Jokowi claims that our open 7:49 unemployment has decreased, but in the 7:52 field, we see such extraordinary things 7:56 . If there's a story of a job opening, 8:00 say at one McDonald's stall or 8:02 something, the queue, oh my God, is so 8:05 long. So, first, we really need leaders 8:11 and future leaders to look at our 8:14 country's capacity in providing jobs. I 8:21 happen to be, Mas Agus and Mas Nailul, 8:24 in the working committee for the RPJP, 8:27 uh, the National Long-Term Development 8:29 Plan. Uh, it is hoped that, uh, in 2045 8:35 , the manufacturing contribution will 8:39 be at 30%with a per capita income of 8:43 30,000 dollars. But we see the current 8:48 baseline is that the manufacturing 8:50 contribution is actually declining 8:52 continuously. That is why the migration 8:56 of workers from formal to informal work 8:59 , whose, uh, safety net, whose coverage 9:01 when problems arise is very difficult, 9:04 uh, for the state to maintain. Well, 9:08 that is why the government is racing 9:12 between prioritizing social aid and 9:15 basic needs, while attempting to build 9:19 an industry that can make our 9:22 manufacturing sector superior and 9:25 resilient. Of course, this is a matter 9:31 of innovation, a matter of how to make 9:34 things more competitive, which is an 9:37 extraordinary challenge. The second 9:42 point I want to convey is how our 9:45 education quality, with 20%of the state 9:51 and regional budgets—Mr. Jokowi 9:54 mentioned a figure of 7 22 or 712 9:58 trillion, Mr. Nailul, which is very 10:01 large. But, when we try to map it out, 10:05 Mr. Agus, it turns out that much of it 10:08 is not well-targeted, so what happens 10:11 is that our education experts thrive, 10:15 yet our PISA scores remain stagnant. We 10:19 always lose out—let alone Singapore, 10:22 even Malaysia is already ahead. We are 10:24 still behind Thailand, we are still 10:26 behind Brunei, we only beat the 10:28 Philippines, you know. Vietnam is 10:30 already above us, you see. Now, because 10:34 of that, truly education, as Amartya 10:40 Sen says, is the golden path to 10:43 prosperity. So, because of that, the 10:47 quality of education is a major concern 10:50 . Without quality education capable of 10:56 providing resilient human resources, we 11:01 will always be trapped in the 11:05 middle-income trap. Lastly. The third 11:09 point, just an introduction, is that 11:12 looking at the 2025 APBN presented by 11:18 Mr. Jokowi, I am a bit saddened; we 11:21 should be brave enough to cut what is 11:23 not important and allocate to what is 11:26 priority and essential. We have this 11:30 demographic bonus window only until 11:33 2050. If we don't prepare it with the 11:38 right budget, the right methods, and 11:41 the right mechanisms, I am worried it 11:43 will turn from a blessing into a 11:45 disaster, and that would sink us 11:47 further. Of course, we look at the 11:54 average, it took 250 years for America 12:00 to become a developed nation. But China 12:02 in 1949 75 years later is already ready 12:08 to replace America. Now, we need to 12:12 learn a lot about economic development 12:16 strategies that are truly oriented 12:19 toward progress, and in Amartya Sen's 12:22 words, it is education that produces 12:25 people who have a "valuable act," or 12:28 valuable actions, including a "state of 12:32 being valuable." Becoming people who 12:36 are not just "Coca-Cola" humans, but 12:39 people who truly have depth, sharpness, 12:42 and integrity, through which they 12:44 become human resources ready to advance 12:47 Indonesia. That's it, Bang Haldi, Mr. 12:52 Agus, and Mr. Nailul. Please, proceed. 12:55 I ask to be excused to close another 12:57 event nearby. Thank you. 12:59 Moving on, Sir, for your introduction 13:03 and remarks. And now we want to hear 13:07 directly from our economic experts 13:09 regarding the current condition of 13:12 Indonesia. Is it truly heading toward a 13:15 Golden Indonesia, or is there something 13:17 to be worried about? First, Mr. Nailul, 13:19 please go ahead to give your 13:21 presentation and views. 13:24 Yes. Thank you, Mr. Agus. In the name 13:26 of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most 13:27 Merciful. Peace be upon you all, and 13:28 Allah's mercy and blessings. Good 13:29 evening everyone. Best wishes to us all 13:32 . Thank you, Bang Mardani Ali Sera, Mas 13:37 Heldi, and the PKS TV crew for inviting 13:40 COS, especially me, to be here again. 13:45 We can chat and discuss, perhaps until 13:49 8:30 PM as usual, right? And also, good 13:54 evening to the respected Mr. Agus Eko, 13:57 it's our second time being here 13:59 together, Sir. May I have permission. 14:04 Yes, may I share my screen, Mas Heldi, 14:08 to sharpen what has been conveyed by 14:13 Bang Mardani Ali Sera. We are indeed 14:18 facing, if I may say, a middle-income 14:26 trap, so we could say that Indonesia's 14:32 economy has a quite high potential to 14:37 be caught in the middle-income trap. 14:44 Because if we look at it from the 14:46 perspective of exiting the 14:47 middle-income trap, what must be 14:50 addressed first is the productivity 14:52 side. What is human productivity 14:55 generated from? It is generated from 14:59 the work mentioned earlier, regarding 15:01 industry and so on. Then also from the 15:06 aspect of education and so forth, which 15:11 I feel makes us quite anxious about 15:15 facing Indonesia in 2045. Now, if we 15:22 look at the readiness of the population 15:27 alone, if we look at the NEET—or 15:31 youth who are not in employment, not in 15:36 education, and not in training in 15:40 Indonesia—the number reaches 22.34%. 15:49 Now, this is higher compared to other 15:52 countries. So, our youth or our Gen Z 15:55 who are unemployed are quite numerous. 15:58 They are not in school, not working, 16:01 and also not receiving training. That 16:04 is quite large compared to other ASEAN 16:05 countries. The ASEAN average is at 16:08 17.75%. Indonesia has 9.9 million of 16:12 them, or about 22.34%of our total youth 16:16 population. Now, this can also be seen 16:21 from the PISA scores mentioned earlier 16:25 by Bang Mardani. We are lagging behind, 16:29 and we are indeed far behind compared 16:32 to other countries. If we look at 16:35 Malaysia or Singapore, we no longer 16:37 consider them rivals because they are 16:39 so advanced, as well as Vietnam and 16:41 others. I feel this ultimately causes 16:44 the quality of our human resources to 16:46 be quite low. This leads to Indonesia, 16:51 once again, not being a "Golden 16:54 Indonesia" in 2045, but rather 16:57 potentially creating an "Anxious 17:00 Indonesia" in 2045, and this is also 17:04 based on the demographic bonus that 17:07 will peak from 2030 onwards, where 68% 17:11 of our society will be at a productive 17:15 age. With these characteristics—not 17:21 working, not in school, not receiving 17:24 training, and having relatively low 17:28 PISA scores—it could ultimately turn 17:32 2030 into a demographic disaster. Well, 17:37 this is what I feel, and what has been 17:39 expressed by several economists, that 17:42 this could become a catastrophe for 17:44 Indonesia. Then, we can see that 17:48 because the 'N' is very high, the 17:51 output is very low. This eventually 17:55 causes Indonesia's human capital index 17:58 to lag further behind compared to other 18:01 countries. Let's take Vietnam as an 18:04 example. Vietnam's human capital index 18:06 has already reached 0.69. Indonesia is 18:10 at 0.54. Malaysia is at 0.61. Thailand 18:14 is at 0.61, and China is already at 18:16 0.65. Indonesia is still far behind. It 18:20 only wins when compared to India. Now, 18:23 this causes, if we can say, industries 18:28 to be more interested in placing their 18:32 investments in Vietnam, Thailand, or 18:36 Malaysia rather than in Indonesia. We 18:41 know that the industrial share has been 18:44 consistently declining. Currently, it 18:48 is at 18%, which is far from the target 18:53 of over 30%by 2045. So, there is a lot 18:58 of homework to do, and with a low human 19:00 capital index, why would high-tech 19:02 industries want to put their money in 19:05 Indonesia? That is why, if we look at 19:08 it recently, Apple did not place its 19:11 investment in Indonesia. They chose to 19:14 invest in Vietnam. The latest news is 19:17 that Vietnam has already started 19:20 building a semiconductor industry. 19:23 Indonesia still does not have one to 19:25 this day. So, the semiconductor 19:27 industry is already there and being 19:29 built in Vietnam. Yes, it is already 19:32 there and being built in Vietnam. While 19:34 in Indonesia, there is absolutely 19:36 nothing. Ultimately, we can say that we 19:40 are relatively far behind Vietnam in 19:44 terms of technological readiness, 19:47 high-tech industries, and also 19:50 high-tech exports. High-tech exports 19:55 compared to our total exports are only 19:58 8%. In Malaysia and Vietnam, it is 20:02 already over 50%. This means that 20:06 Indonesia will once again rely on goods 20:10 that do not fall into the 20:12 medium-high-tech category, but rather 20:16 low-tech goods. Once again, it will 20:20 rely on natural resources. And that 20:23 will never be established as long as 20:25 the human capital index remains quite 20:27 low. This is also related to the 20:34 innovation index, which affects our 20:38 score. We are far behind the 20:42 Philippines, and we lag behind Vietnam, 20:45 Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. We 20:49 might be able to win against Laos, 20:52 Cambodia, and so on. But our innovation 20:55 is much further behind. That is why you 21:00 could say that Apple and Microsoft 21:02 choose to invest in other ASEAN 21:05 countries compared to investing in 21:08 Indonesia. Even when Tesla or Elon Musk 21:12 came to Indonesia, they were offered 21:15 and welcomed with great enthusiasm by 21:19 our officials. But in the end, their 21:23 investment was only for sales, not for 21:27 manufacturing. So, in the end, we are 21:31 once again just being used as a market 21:34 for them. This is why I’m saying our 21:38 innovation index is under threat, and 21:40 it’s already threatened—on top of 21:43 that, it could even fall further. Now, 21:47 if we compare this by indicator against 21:50 Vietnam, for example, with Indonesia 21:53 shown in blue, we only win in terms of 21:56 market. We only win in market, but look 22:00 , in creative output we are far behind, 22:02 in institutions we are far behind, and 22:04 then in terms of knowledge and 22:06 technology output, we are also far 22:08 behind. The same applies to Malaysia. 22:10 Malaysia. They can even have a market 22:14 score higher than Indonesia. This is 22:19 also an issue, and the funny thing is, 22:22 when we talk about business. I have met 22:26 several times with friends in business, 22:29 whether in technology or other sectors, 22:32 and they always say that in Vietnam, 22:35 when it comes to regulations and 22:37 institutions, things are much clearer. 22:42 In Indonesia, when we want to build in 22:45 a certain region, say a region in East 22:48 Java, for instance. The price is 22:52 already much higher. The price can jump 22:56 multiple times over when there is talk 22:59 of building a factory there; the price 23:01 will definitely skyrocket. Then we know 23:06 that, well, you could say that from a 23:10 regulatory standpoint, Vietnam offers 23:14 more certainty. Meanwhile, here in 23:19 Indonesia, even with the Job Creation 23:22 Law and so on, it hasn't had a big 23:25 enough impact to attract investment 23:28 into the country. Take the Batang 23:32 Integrated Industrial Estate, for 23:34 example. Bahlil himself stated that the 23:38 Batang industrial estate has no master 23:40 plan, no planning at all. That is also 23:43 an issue, right? How can industries 23:46 want to enter when there is no master 23:48 plan? And with no master plan, it 23:50 automatically means that in terms of 23:52 regulation and institutions, it is not 23:54 well-planned. That is why we are 23:57 falling behind in that regard. Now, let 24:00 me try to share my screen for the 24:03 second time. Now, where is it? 24:11 Ultimately, we can conclude that this 24:15 will create quite a complex problem. We 24:21 might not be able to escape the 24:23 middle-income trap. If we look at GNI 24:26 per capita, Gross National Income per 24:28 capita, we are still quite low. It is 24:31 difficult for us to catch up to Korea. 24:35 In the 1960s, South Korea's GNI was the 24:37 same as Indonesia's. But by 2022, 24:43 Indonesia was still at the 3,000-ish 24:48 level, while Korea had already reached 24:53 32,000 for their GNI per capita. So it 24:59 is very far, even ten times more, right 25:02 ? And this is homework for us since we 25:06 cannot escape the middle-income trap 25:09 while our GNI is still at the 4,000 25:12 level, because to escape it, one could 25:15 say it should be at 10,000 or more. 25:18 Well, that is still far, very far 25:20 indeed. Now, this is also reflected 25:23 from, uh...The Gini index. Even if we 25:30 look at our lagging GNI per capita 25:33 earlier and so on, it causes our Gini 25:36 index to become increasingly imbalanced 25:38 . If we look at 2023, our index is at 25:42 0.38. Whereas in 2010, our Gini index 25:48 was at 0.378. So, even though if we 25:54 look from 2011 we went down, compared 25:57 to the years before 2011, we are quite 25:59 imbalanced right now. Now, this is what 26:03 was caused by the deindustrialization 26:06 earlier and so on. Now, this is what is 26:11 happening, and I think this can cause 26:14 several problems, as mentioned by Bang 26:16 Mardani, when industry is abandoned and 26:19 so on. Now, another problem we face is 26:24 our economic efficiency, where our ICOR 26:27 value is high. Our ICOR value in 2009 26:32 was at 6.6, and now it might be at 6.8 26:37 to 7. Now, the higher the ICOR, the 26:41 more inefficient our economy becomes. 26:46 Now, when our economy is not efficient, 26:48 growth will be stunted or not grow 26:50 optimally. That is why, if we look at 26:55 this graph, it can be said that when 26:57 ICOR rises, GDP growth slows down. And 27:02 this is homework for us, for the 27:06 government, on how to create policies 27:09 that can lower our ICOR. So, what is 27:14 the problem, actually? The problem is 27:18 corruption, inefficient bureaucracy, 27:21 and so on, which makes it so that to 27:23 invest, for example, to build a bridge, 27:27 it takes 10 billion in capital, but 27:29 with a higher ICOR, it requires around 27:32 13 to 15 billion. It means the economy 27:36 is not efficient. 3 billion for 27:38 instance A, 3 billion for instance B, 27:41 and so on. That is why our economic 27:44 efficiency tends to be poor, worse 27:46 compared to other ASEAN countries. So, 27:49 this is what causes investment to not 27:51 want to come in. Premature 27:53 deindustrialization is happening, if I 27:56 may say so. And I think this is a 27:59 problem that must be solved if 28:01 Indonesia does not want to become " 28:03 Indonesia Cemas"(Anxious Indonesia) in 28:05 2045. That might be the introduction 28:09 from me. Alright, thank you Mr. Naul. 28:19 The data earlier was very interesting, 28:22 and now let's hear from Mr. Agus Eko. 28:25 Please go ahead, Sir. 28:28 Yes, thank you, Mas. Uh...Peace be upon 28:33 you, and Allah's mercy and blessings. 28:34 And peace be upon you too. 28:35 Greetings of health to us all. This is 28:39 our second, uh, third, second or third 28:44 time joining in this, uh, what is this, 28:48 leader? What is it, Mas? Permission to 28:53 share, sir. 28:54 Indonesia leader stall, Sir. 28:56 Yes, Indonesia leader stall. Yes. Uh, 29:02 are you able to share yet, Mas? 29:04 Yes, yes, I can, Sir. Please go ahead. 29:07 I Can you see it, Mas? Okay. So, 29:19 perhaps continuing from Mas Nel Huda, 29:21 if we observe it, we are indeed trying 29:23 to check our uh long-term growth; 29:29 actually, is our trajectory heading 29:33 toward, uh, growth that is uh, 29:38 promising, or do we perhaps need to put 29:42 in, uh, much greater effort to reach 29:46 those targets? Yes, if we observe it, 29:51 we have indeed experienced, uh, our 29:54 golden growth which has already passed. 30:00 So if we track it from the long term, 30:05 for example, from '61 to 2020, then, uh 30:09 , post-crisis in 2000 or '99 until now, 30:14 the trend can be said to be 30:17 experiencing a consistent decline. Now, 30:23 this is what we are trying to look at. 30:26 Because of that, the problem that is 30:29 likely very relevant, of course, is not 30:31 related to the short term, but rather 30:34 to the long term. Uh, how we manage, uh 30:40 , our economy, how our, uh, human 30:43 resources are, and how the business 30:46 climate that, uh, we can, uh, develop, 30:49 becomes one of the, yes, tricky 30:52 problems. Meaning, we are on, uh, a 30:59 series of, uh, declining growth trends. 31:06 This is, of course, the question: how 31:09 will, uh, the next 20 years, the second 31:13 long-term period, become a turning 31:17 point to lead to an upswing in our 31:20 future economic growth? If not, then, 31:26 uh, the problem will become even more 31:28 complicated. We will end up in a 31:33 condition where our, uh, demographic 31:36 bonus is just missed. And this, uh, is 31:42 the term commonly used by economists, 31:44 that we could grow old before getting 31:47 rich. This is what I think, uh, how we 31:51 should anticipate it. Now, if we look, 31:56 for example, at whether we are capable 31:59 of carrying out some projections that 32:02 we have done, which for the time being 32:05 still need to be refined. So, if we, uh 32:09 , assume that, uh, the growth target is 32:15 5%, uh, with, uh, a threshold like this 32:22 , uh, it's possible we can get out. 32:27 Meaning, with the prerequisite that, uh 32:30 , growth is a constant 5%. that by 2043 32:37 we will arrive, of course, this is from 32:40 the current, uh, uh, measurements. Now, 32:46 if we are able to grow by 7%, 6%, or 7% 32:50 , then it will likely be possible to, 32:54 uh, be even faster. This is just a 32:58 projection that is, of course, very, 33:00 very rough. But at least this indicates 33:06 that there is a possibility we can, uh, 33:10 reach that process. Now, from there, 33:13 but what about the challenges? Now, 33:17 this is what I think is very 33:19 fundamental. The problem is, uh, very 33:21 heavy indeed. If we use data from, for 33:27 example, 2023, the growth of our 33:30 industry is only around 3.9%. Still 33:37 below 5%, our agriculture is even lower 33:42 , which is 3.3%. On average, this is. 33:48 Now, because of that, to achieve it, we 33:52 certainly need to know how to boost our 33:55 manufacturing growth to a level of 5%, 33:59 for example, or perhaps even 6%. And 34:05 this is what we certainly must push our 34:09 agriculture to be able to grow 34:12 significantly, for example, 4.2%or 34:15 close to 5%. This is not easy when we 34:20 look at what is currently in place. Uh, 34:24 for the same data and the same period, 34:26 it turns out if we look at it, the 34:29 output growth is still very, very low. 34:33 Perhaps only palm oil from the 34:35 agricultural side can grow, or maybe, 34:38 uh, what, chicken and egg production 34:40 that still grows above 10%and maybe 34:43 close to 10%for chicken and eggs. The 34:47 others are almost all at 0 point 34:49 something up to 3%at most, and this is 34:52 certainly a problem located in low 34:57 total factor productivity; and for 35:00 example, almost everything we marked in 35:04 red is negative. And for instance, in 35:09 palm oil, the driving factor is only 35:12 land expansion, for example, and this 35:15 certainly concerns how our labor 35:18 quality and agricultural machinery do 35:21 not have a significant enough impact. 35:26 Even fertilizer or the use of 35:28 pesticides is also not significant 35:31 enough in efforts to boost our 35:34 agricultural growth. And this is 35:38 certainly what will complicate things 35:45 with extreme poverty that is still very 35:49 high, and also, of course, its relation 35:52 to stunting, which even with current 35:56 data might still be far from the 2024 36:00 target. And this is likely the issue 36:05 raised by Mas Nuruda earlier, that 36:08 state budgets in priority areas are 36:12 very large and may not be effective in 36:16 reaching their goals, whether for 36:19 education, health, social protection, 36:23 or food security. And this is what we 36:28 certainly, if we relate it to what the 36:31 future challenges actually are, then 36:34 there are at least four aspects that 36:37 are very important to solve. The first 36:42 is certainly how we strive for food 36:45 security and food independence by 36:48 boosting agricultural productivity. 36:53 Meaning how those low agricultural 36:55 priorities can be boosted. This is 36:58 certainly related to how to strengthen 37:01 the workforce in the agricultural 37:04 sector, how to encourage these young, 37:07 productive people to get involved in 37:10 the world of agriculture. And this is 37:15 certainly not easy, meaning, how will 37:18 the terms of trade in agriculture, 37:21 which continue to decline, attract 37:24 millennial youth to enter this 37:26 agricultural sector? The second is the 37:31 stagnation of manufacturing industry 37:32 growth. We agree that almost all of us 37:36 are currently experiencing premature 37:38 deindustrialization, which, if we look 37:41 at it, shows that this industrial 37:43 growth is still far, very far behind 37:46 our economic growth. What is the result 37:49 ? Certainly, our economic growth is not 37:54 of high enough quality to provide 37:57 significant job opportunities for our 38:02 workforce. Because we know that this 38:07 industry usually provides broader 38:11 opportunities for labor absorption if 38:15 it can grow significantly enough. The 38:20 next one is extreme poverty and the 38:22 prevalence of stunting. And this will 38:24 have long-term dimensions for us. This 38:27 relates to, perhaps, the efficiency and 38:29 governance of our social security and 38:31 protection systems. That is, and of 38:35 course, how the inefficient governance 38:39 of our social system is not responsive 38:43 enough to the problems in front of us, 38:47 such as the high risk of disasters, 38:50 climate change, and also, the problem 38:54 of extreme poverty. Now, this could be 38:59 related to the ineffectiveness of 39:01 government spending, both in terms of 39:04 regional transfer programs, including 39:06 village funds, and the governance of 39:09 our education and health sectors. And 39:12 this certainly has a very important 39:15 dimension for strengthening our human 39:18 resources in the future. These 39:22 challenges, I think, are the 39:25 prerequisites for us to be able to grow 39:30 as targeted. And of course, it is very 39:36 urgent to make policy breakthroughs 39:41 that can move and solve our long-term 39:46 problems related to, for example: 39:50 education, health, our skills, a more 39:55 productive workforce, and so on. And 40:02 this is certainly not just a problem at 40:05 the central government level, but also 40:07 for regional governments. How the size 40:11 of regional transfers and village funds 40:15 can provide a positive effect on the 40:18 development of our agricultural sector. 40:22 For example. I think that is all, Mas 40:29 Haldi. Certainly, the challenges are 40:32 not easy. So, it is very fundamental 40:35 for us to be able to grow significantly 40:39 in the future. That is all, thank you. 40:43 Peace be upon you, and Allah's mercy 40:44 and blessings. 40:45 And peace be upon you too. Thank you, 40:49 Mr. Agus. Let us start the discussion 40:52 now. While waiting, hopefully Bung Roki 40:54 can join, as well as Mr. Mardani. 40:57 Perhaps we can start with this, sir. 41:03 Our country is said to be a large one, 41:05 and managing a large country is likely 41:08 not easy. And earlier, Mas Nailul also 41:12 mentioned that we seem unable to escape 41:15 the middle-income trap country status. 41:21 Compared to managing a small country 41:23 like Singapore, where the population is 41:27 small, there isn't much to manage, and 41:30 most people there don't need many 41:32 subsidies. So, for a country this big, 41:37 what would you say are the main 41:38 breakthroughs, Sir? Yes, what can the 41:41 leaders of this country do to lead our 41:44 nation toward progress? Perhaps one 41:47 country that can serve as a benchmark 41:50 is China. A country with an 41:53 extraordinary number of people. It 41:55 turns out they are capable of making 41:58 progress. And maybe another comparable 42:02 example is America; although its 42:03 population is on par with Indonesia's, 42:05 they have already become a highly 42:07 developed nation. It turns out that a 42:10 country with a large population can do 42:12 it too. But there are also other 42:14 examples like India, which is not yet 42:16 very advanced, even though they are 42:18 leading in some areas globally. So, 42:22 considering the challenges of a country 42:25 this large, Sir, what is the most 42:28 important breakthrough that our 42:30 government and leaders, especially our 42:33 new president, need to make so this can 42:36 be a starting point for Indonesia's 42:39 rise? What would be the most important 42:43 breakthrough from Mr. Agus, and perhaps 42:45 after that, from Mr. Nailul? Perhaps 42:47 Mr. Agus, please go ahead. So, in my 42:51 opinion, the first thing is the 42:53 significant investment we have already 42:56 made, mainly in infrastructure. And I 43:00 think this is a huge challenge: how can 43:03 that infrastructure provide a spillover 43:06 effect to the growth of our industrial 43:09 sector, and how to invigorate 43:12 investment is the keyword here. Now, if 43:17 we look at it, the first thing is that 43:19 our investment climate must be 43:21 conducive. We must have the courage to 43:25 make breakthroughs, especially in our 43:27 public services. The speed of public 43:32 services, including the quality of 43:35 digitalized administration, and also 43:39 how we promote investment externally so 43:46 that capital inflows can occur. Now, I 43:50 think this is the first thing in that 43:54 context, starting from how we at least 43:59 strive to determine what products can 44:03 be improved along every, let's say, 44:07 route of the infrastructure we have 44:11 built, from roads, bridges, ports, and 44:16 so on. I think this is very important 44:19 because, like it or not, if that 44:21 doesn't happen, then our infrastructure 44:23 will depreciate significantly. This is 44:27 what is important. The next thing is 44:31 how to are we brave enough to push for 44:37 efforts to improve the quality of our 44:41 workforce? Not just those directly 44:46 produced by our education system, but 44:50 also our training institutions, which 44:55 we must revitalize to quickly upgrade 44:59 graduates from both high schools and 45:03 universities. I think this is very 45:07 important. Now, the next thing is how 45:12 to maintain or lower the interest rates 45:16 that are still quite significant on our 45:20 credit. And I think this, uh, is very 45:23 important. And how, uh, to encourage, 45:29 banks, yes, to be able to increase, uh, 45:32 the speed of credit allocation to be 45:35 more expansive. And this is, uh, 45:39 without, in an effort to encourage 45:42 investment in all lines, yes, including 45:44 in the agricultural sector. The most 45:48 important focus, in my opinion, is on 45:50 our agriculture and our industries. Uh, 45:53 of course, how to create new industries 45:57 , right? Whether through digital or 46:01 through, let's say, circular economy, 46:04 where, uh, how to use businesses, uh, 46:07 what? Managing reuse, recycle, and so 46:12 on, or with, let's say, uh, the blue 46:15 economy, this is what I think is very 46:19 important. Uh, technological capability 46:23 must be accelerated so that there is a 46:27 significant leap in, uh, the sector, uh 46:30 , what? Industry and investment must 46:33 also start from there. Without doing 46:36 that, we will be stuck in growth at a 46:41 level of maybe around 5%or it could 46:45 drop with the current global economic 46:50 turmoil. I think that's it, Mas Heldi. 46:54 For now. 46:56 Thank you, Pak Agus. Now to Pak Nailul. 46:58 Same question, sir. What kind of 47:01 breakthroughs do you think need to be 47:02 made for a country as large as this? 47:05 Yes, we are certainly different from 47:07 Singapore and countries with smaller 47:08 populations, perhaps. 47:11 Yes. Yes, Mas. Indeed, this is the 47:14 breakthrough we hope for, but it is 47:17 certainly not a breakthrough in 47:19 creating or enacting the Job Creation 47:22 Law. The Job Creation Law has not been 47:26 proven to work, has it? Even until now, 47:29 it only shifts labor; what was 47:31 originally opened in Banten finally 47:34 moves to find regions with lower 47:37 minimum wages. That is what is actually 47:40 happening. And then, what can be done, 47:43 right? Now, earlier Pak Agus also 47:46 explained about technology and so on. 47:49 Because it's like this, Mas. We are 47:51 talking about the medium and long term, 47:54 right? Certainly, if we talk about 47:57 education, that is long-term, but it is 48:00 something that must be done going 48:02 forward so that by the time we reach 48:05 2045, the productive age will already 48:07 be high quality. Well, we see education 48:11 as one of our long-term efforts, and 48:14 the effort, as I mentioned, is to 48:16 improve things like the PISA scores; 48:19 for instance, PISA scores have never 48:22 been among the targets at the Ministry 48:24 of Education and Culture, right? In 48:29 fact, if we look at it, we’ve 48:31 actually spoken with officials at the 48:34 Ministry of Education, Culture, 48:37 Research, and Technology, and they 48:39 don't seem to consider PISA data as 48:42 something valid, right? That’s a 48:45 misconception, in the sense that they 48:47 have a misunderstanding of what PISA 48:49 actually is. Then, if we look at the 48:52 outcome, what we hope for is an 48:55 increase in the human capital index. 48:58 Once our human capital index rises, our 49:00 human resources will automatically be 49:02 ready to face the increasingly rapid 49:04 pace of technological development. And 49:07 when all of this has been running in 49:10 the long term, what we hope for is an 49:12 improvement in technology, an increase 49:15 in innovation, and so on. Because if we 49:19 look at economic theory, when economic 49:22 growth is stagnant, the thing that can 49:25 accelerate it is technology, or in 49:27 other words, the exogenous variable is 49:30 technology. That is why, when 49:33 technology advances, it is 49:35 automatically accompanied by an 49:36 increase in economic growth. Like what 49:39 happened in Vietnam. Vietnam, well, you 49:41 could say their country isn't much 49:44 better off than Indonesia, right? But 49:48 they are capable of improving the 49:51 welfare of their people. They managed 49:55 to improve in terms of technology and 49:57 regulations, and as they improved, they 50:00 were finally able to grow faster, right 50:02 ? Meanwhile, in Indonesia, what was 50:05 done was to create the Job Creation Law 50:07 . The Job Creation Law actually 50:10 downgrades labor conditions and 50:12 environmental quality, which are things 50:14 we should be protecting, right? The 50:17 environment is something we must 50:19 protect, yet the Job Creation Law 50:21 ultimately negates environmental 50:23 factors for certain business risks. So, 50:27 this is what should actually be done, 50:30 not by implementing the Job Creation 50:33 Law, right? Even if we look back at 50:36 2019, the revision of the KPK Law 50:38 further weakened it, which means our 50:40 democratic quality and our efforts 50:42 against corruption are declining. This 50:46 means that, in terms of economic 50:48 efficiency, it will also decline. Our 50:51 economy is not becoming more efficient 50:52 because of issues like illegal levies, 50:54 corruption, and so on, which I feel 50:55 will actually damage the Indonesian 50:56 nation in the future. That is why this 50:59 is one of the reasons—I even wrote an 51:02 article stating that one of Jokowi's 51:04 biggest sins is creating the Job 51:06 Creation Law. Alright, thank you Mr. 51:12 Nailol, and now joining us is Ms. Roki. 51:14 Good evening. Assalamualaikum, Ms. Roki 51:16 . 51:16 Waalaikumsalam. Good evening. I am so 51:18 sorry. I lost my access earlier. What 51:22 is the issue? 51:24 Our theme this evening is related to 51:26 the economy. Are we heading towards a " 51:29 Golden Indonesia" or an "Anxious 51:30 Indonesia"? And now we have the August 51:33 17th momentum. Soon there will be a 51:37 change of president, and we are also 51:40 currently drafting the 2025-2045 51:44 Long-Term Development Plan, while also 51:47 approaching a period where the threat 51:51 of a global crisis may occur, perhaps 51:55 this year and the next. How does Bung 51:59 Rocky see our economic condition? Are 52:02 we truly optimistic about heading 52:04 toward the aspired Golden Indonesia, or 52:06 will it be an Anxious Indonesia? 52:09 Neither will happen. There will be no 52:11 gold and there will be no anxiety. What 52:14 there will be is lethargy. Because we 52:18 are lethargic looking at that situation 52:20 . It is true that the crux of the 52:23 previous economist's talk was mainly 52:26 about efficiency, but that is just an 52:29 internal part of planning. When all 52:33 factors have been calculated, 52:35 technology is contributed as a backup 52:37 if the growth rate is insufficient. 52:40 Efficiency is also a backup. Everything 52:43 is for backup. But what is dangerous is 52:45 the public's perception of that backup 52:48 itself. Basically, if we look at the 52:51 macro data, our industrialization and 52:54 technological capacity to provide that 52:57 backup is still very limited, so we 52:59 don't start to worry, we start to feel 53:02 lethargic. So, the "Golden" state is 53:07 only what we imagine if all*ceteris 53:09 paribus*factors are prepared. In 53:13 economics, there is*ceteris paribus*, 53:15 but within rational planning, there is 53:18 now an irrational situation. People do 53:22 not believe that the transition from 53:25 Mr. Jokowi to Mr. Prabowo will be 53:26 smooth, so all economic assumptions can 53:29 be guaranteed to run linearly. What we 53:32 see now is a zigzag. We don't know what 53:35 Mr. Prabowo's concept of a circular 53:37 economy is. Is that circular economy 53:41 circular in the sense of being green, 53:43 but then coal is used to produce that 53:46 green energy? Is there dirty energy, or 53:49 is all the energy made green but then 53:51 consumed after one use? Circular means 53:54 it continues that way, it will never 53:57 change, but the amount of heat released 53:59 by the circular process can be made 54:01 efficient. Now, that is what we haven't 54:04 seen yet: what kind of circularity 54:06 Prabowo will use to power, or rather, 54:08 his economic engines. The second point 54:11 is the international pressure on 54:12 Indonesia that is getting stronger over 54:14 time. Because for Western countries, 54:17 our green cover is apparently seen as 54:20 green cover due to palm oil or golf 54:22 courses, not green cover due to the 54:25 biodiversity of the forests themselves. 54:29 So these political pressure problems 54:31 are what will make the perception of 54:33 economic progress or growth potentially 54:35 fail midway. Especially if we look at 54:39 these days, political stability is a 54:41 factor that allows us to recalculate 54:43 the economy outside of the economic 54:44 variables themselves. Well, we don't 54:47 see any political stability. Student 54:50 movements were rampant everywhere 54:51 earlier today, yet not a single radio 54:53 station covered them. We only received 54:57 reports that the student protests 54:59 against Jokowi were controlled by 55:01 authorities, and the mass media rarely 55:03 covered them. So, all the things we 55:07 know have become factors that could 55:10 derail the perception of economic 55:12 growth, or an economy where we can 55:14 restore its primary function, 55:16 prioritizing manufacturing during 55:19 deindustrialization. Energy 55:22 availability also remains uncertain in 55:24 terms of its sustainability. So, all 55:28 these things we call economic 55:30 projections depend heavily on two 55:32 factors. First, the perception of 55:36 whether politics is stable or unstable 55:38 during this transition. Second, our 55:41 perception of what Mr. Prabowo will 55:44 promise. If Mr. Prabowo, for instance, 55:47 had said from the start, "Okay, the 55:49 Finance Minister will come from the 55:50 fiscal sector, not the monetary sector, 55:52 " that means we would know there will 55:54 be state spending there. "Taxes will be 55:57 increased in the planning." But until 55:59 now, we don't know who the Finance 56:01 Minister is, or who the Minister of 56:02 Energy and Mineral Resources is. So 56:05 that makes the market think that 56:07 Indonesia still needs additional 56:09 variables to convince them that it is 56:12 worth investing in, right? So I think 56:16 the main factor is political, and that 56:18 is what we often say: if an economist 56:21 starts lying, we can suspect there is a 56:24 political factor behind them, right? 56:28 There is a principle that economics 56:30 doesn't lie, but economists do. Now, 56:33 these economists are people hired by 56:36 the state to manipulate public opinion 56:38 through data that we sometimes assume 56:40 is true—that inflation is controlled, 56:42 the Gini ratio is controlled, and 56:45 economic growth is visible. But if we 56:49 talk to economic players in the retail 56:51 sector, fast-food outlets now might 56:53 only be operating on a weekly basis. 56:57 Employees are hired weekly; there are 57:00 no longer labor agreements to avoid 57:02 corporate obligations, and the portion 57:04 sizes sold are getting smaller. So it 57:08 is true that efforts to recover the 57:10 economy depend heavily on the trust of 57:12 the international market and foreign 57:14 investors in Indonesia's potential to 57:16 grow. So that is the point, and it also 57:20 concerns Mr. Prabowo's cabinet 57:21 portfolio, which the international 57:23 community cannot yet read. Alright, Ms. 57:32 Rokih. Are you optimistic that Mr. 57:35 Prabowo will provide a new direction, a 57:39 change, a new way of governing compared 57:43 to Mr. Jokowi's 10 years, giving us 57:47 hope for a better Indonesia than the 57:51 past two terms? Mr. Jokowi? 57:54 You can be optimistic if Prabowo makes 57:56 a radical break. Show the market, show 57:58 the global political system, that 58:00 Prabowo's economy is not controlled by 58:03 Jokowi through ministers who were 58:05 sponsored by Jokowi. Take for example, 58:09 Mr. Prabowo, who might be thinking 58:11 about stopping the IKN project, was 58:14 forced by Jokowi in public to say how 58:16 long he could finish it, so Prabowo 58:19 diplomatically said, "Yes, 4, 5, 6 58:21 years if it can be accelerated," which 58:24 is irrational, but he had to say it 58:26 politically even though he knows that 58:29 it's impossible to finish IKN in 30 or 58:32 40 years with the trade-off of the free 58:35 lunch program, right. But in the end, 58:39 Prabowo said, "Yes, I might be able to 58:41 ensure it's finished in 4, 5, or 6 58:44 years so that Mr. Jokowi might still 58:46 see Gibran working from there." But 58:51 Prabowo then said a diplomatic phrase. 58:54 "But I am not the expert, sir." So we 58:57 ask the experts. If we ask experts, 58:59 they will say it won't be finished for 59:00 another 50 years. Now, these are all 59:02 very vague things. We have plans before 59:06 us, but the certainty of those plans ' 59:08 success is hindered by psychology. The 59:12 psychology of this transition. If the 59:16 transition is truly a radical break, 59:18 meaning the quality of President 59:21 Jokowi's economic design will not be 59:23 continued by Prabowo and Prabowo states 59:26 that in a short time, then the 59:28 political turmoil can be controlled. 59:33 Because right now, people still cannot 59:35 believe that Prabowo can draw a firm 59:37 line between his economic system and 59:40 Jokowi's economic system. After all, 59:43 Prabowo wants to be the first socialist 59:46 in Asia so it looks like his cabinet 59:48 could even rival the popularity of 59:51 Anwar Ibrahim. These are ambitions that 59:54 must be proven with growing economic 59:56 support. But once again, if Prabowo is 1:00:00 unwilling to say that I will be frugal, 1:00:02 I will cut all budgets that were 1:00:04 supposed to be for prosperity but 1:00:06 turned out to be consumptive. Now, if 1:00:10 he says that, people will start 1:00:12 calculating which ones Prabowo will cut 1:00:15 . Once again, that requires a kind of 1:00:17 political decisiveness from the 1:00:18 president-elect. Alright, thank you 1:00:23 Mokih. Now Mr. Mareni. Mr. Marani, can 1:00:26 you join us again? Okay, maybe he is 1:00:31 still teaching. Okay, now to Mr. Agus 1:00:34 Eko. Uh, how about your response 1:00:39 regarding what Mr. Prabowo needs to do, 1:00:42 Mr. Agus, so that his administration— 1:00:45 he has observed so many presidential 1:00:48 terms, and we hope, especially the last 1:00:51 one under President Jokowi, that there 1:00:54 are improvements that can be made by 1:00:57 Mr. Prabowo. Are you optimistic, Mr. 1:01:02 Agus, and what do you think Mr. Prabowo 1:01:06 will do in maybe his first 100 days of 1:01:09 government given the current conditions 1:01:13 ? 1:01:19 You are still on mute, sir. Okay, 1:01:20 yes. So, in my view, it is certainly 1:01:25 critical how our economic course, how 1:01:30 our economic direction for the future 1:01:34 is managed, and how that is concretely 1:01:39 implemented in several selected sectors 1:01:44 . Our view. It means we cannot continue 1:01:50 to make endless investments, in the 1:01:55 context of what specific industries we 1:02:01 are going to develop. I believe there 1:02:06 are specific choices, whether to revive 1:02:10 the labor-intensive industry sector, or 1:02:13 of course, how we strengthen—in my 1:02:17 opinion, strengthening our food 1:02:20 security and the resilience of our 1:02:24 society—has become very critical in 1:02:27 our view. First is how to be able to 1:02:31 boost the growth of our agricultural 1:02:33 sector. This is very critical because 1:02:36 of how we respond to climate change, 1:02:39 how we maintain our defense, we have 1:02:42 extraordinary natural resources and 1:02:45 that should certainly be the main focus 1:02:49 because, for example, the phenomenon of 1:02:52 the last few years where there were 1:02:55 fluctuations in rice prices, prices of 1:02:58 staple goods, and so on, this has 1:03:01 become very critical, providing an 1:03:04 indication that our agricultural sector 1:03:07 must have a significant portion. Of 1:03:13 course, it is how to first be able to 1:03:16 boost our agricultural productivity, 1:03:20 both in food, plantations, and so on. 1:03:24 The next is how to move our maritime 1:03:30 economy. How our large maritime sector, 1:03:35 which is indeed the strength of our 1:03:38 natural resources, can be pushed to 1:03:43 create new sources of growth in the 1:03:45 future. Whether that, for example, 1:03:51 relates to, let's say, tourism and then 1:03:56 our fishery resources? How can we 1:04:02 increase our fisheries, yes, from the 1:04:05 perspective of, let's say, production, 1:04:09 both capture fisheries and aquaculture, 1:04:13 into an important strength? I think 1:04:19 that is it. 1:04:20 Alright, thank you, Mr. Agus. Now let's 1:04:24 go to Mr. Oh, Mr. Mardani. Mr. Mardani. 1:04:27 Uh, 1:04:28 ready, Bang Haldi. 1:04:30 Yes, this is roughly the same question, 1:04:32 Mr. Mardani. Uh, will we have a change 1:04:36 of new president with Mr. Prabowo? With 1:04:41 Mr. Prabowo's experience of observing 1:04:43 and following several presidential 1:04:46 administrations, perhaps since 1:04:48 President Soekarno, Soeharto, Gus Dur, 1:04:51 Megawati, SBY, and lastly Jokowi, he is 1:04:54 now the eighth president. Do you think 1:04:58 during that life journey there will be 1:05:01 improvements from the lessons he saw, 1:05:04 so when he becomes president, he will 1:05:06 truly make improvements and not repeat 1:05:09 the mistakes of the previous presidents 1:05:12 ? Uh, for predictions, it is certainly 1:05:18 difficult for me, Bang Haldi. Even 1:05:22 though Mr. Prabowo has the book " 1:05:24 Indonesia Paradox" and a strategic plan 1:05:27 book. Yesterday, a Gerindra friend told 1:05:32 me that Mr. Prabowo has several big 1:05:34 ideas regarding education. But, uh, Mr. 1:05:38 Nailul or Mr. Agus, please remind me if 1:05:41 I'm wrong, but one of the food estate 1:05:44 projects that hasn't succeeded in the 1:05:47 current period is the one under Mr. 1:05:50 Prabowo. Even though there might be 1:05:55 some notes, actually, that's not how I 1:05:58 see it, Bang Haldi. Uh, the highest 1:06:03 poverty rates are found in two sectors. 1:06:07 In rural areas, it's farmers, and in 1:06:10 urban areas, it's informal workers or 1:06:14 laborers. So, in my view, if these two 1:06:20 are resolved, farmers can truly be 1:06:23 productive and have the ability to 1:06:26 multiply their income through 1:06:29 extensification, intensification, or 1:06:32 the right planting patterns. Like in 1:06:38 Japan, they can predict six months 1:06:40 ahead what to plant using intelligence 1:06:43 data, identifying which products yield 1:06:45 the best added value for farmers. That 1:06:49 is extraordinary, including the 1:06:52 fertilizer subsidy system; excuse me, 1:06:55 Mr. Nailul or Mr. Agus, this fertilizer 1:06:58 issue is never-ending, even though it 1:07:01 should be quite simple. Now, for 1:07:05 informal workers in urban areas, there 1:07:08 is no other way: we cannot have people 1:07:11 who are not in employment, education, 1:07:14 or training. This mapping really needs 1:07:20 to be updated; we can no longer use the 1:07:23 old categories of poverty. The idea 1:07:27 that poor people are just those living 1:07:30 in houses with dirt floors. In reality, 1:07:33 many in the urban middle class are also 1:07:36 living right on the poverty line. Now, 1:07:40 the second point, Bang Haldi. After 1:07:43 agriculture and informal urban groups, 1:07:47 I believe we must truly embrace the 1:07:50 demographic bonus. We can no longer 1:07:54 afford to delay this. We need the right 1:08:00 budget allocation and programs, 1:08:01 including thoughtful design. For 1:08:04 example, our nurses are quite in demand 1:08:08 in Japan and other developed countries 1:08:11 with aging societies. We have a window 1:08:15 of opportunity there. That’s why our 1:08:18 economic intelligence can't just rely 1:08:23 on domestic resources alone. We must 1:08:27 look at global needs; one of our 1:08:29 strengths is human resources, and 1:08:31 Indonesians are hardworking everywhere, 1:08:34 it's just that there aren't enough jobs 1:08:36 available. We might not be capable of 1:08:38 that yet. The Philippines is amazing, 1:08:41 Bang Haldi. Middle Eastern countries 1:08:44 absorb so much labor from the 1:08:46 Philippines simply because they have 1:08:49 strong foreign language skills, and 1:08:51 those who generate foreign exchange are 1:08:54 treated very well. Finally, the third 1:08:58 point, after the demographic bonus, my 1:09:02 view is that we must strengthen the 1:09:05 MSME sector, as 98%of our businesses 1:09:09 are MSMEs, yet they contribute less 1:09:12 than 20%. Meanwhile, large companies 1:09:15 make up only 2%but contribute 80%. 1:09:18 There needs to be a clear roadmap. We 1:09:22 need accurate data, the right financing 1:09:25 , and the right training. If necessary, 1:09:30 Bang Haldi. When you're abroad, it's 1:09:34 very hard to find an Indonesian 1:09:36 restaurant, but it's very easy to find 1:09:38 a Thai restaurant. It turns out the 1:09:42 Thai government provides subsidies for 1:09:47 entrepreneurs, uh, in the, uh, food 1:09:52 sector, Bang Aldi, uh, the culinary 1:09:56 industry, you know. 1:09:59 Culinary. 1:10:01 They are truly subsidized, their 1:10:03 supplies, then the raw materials, and 1:10:06 all sorts of things like that. So, 1:10:10 because of that, suddenly, uh, Thailand 1:10:12 can continue to exist and thrive. If 1:10:16 it's Korea, it's the hype, right, the 1:10:18 Korean wave, so many appear, right. 1:10:20 Even if there were no Thai wave, they 1:10:22 would still be successful. Now, those 1:10:26 are some key points, certainly 1:10:27 regarding education, education that we 1:10:29 must improve. Regarding mining, if I 1:10:33 may, excuse me Mas Nailul and Mas Agus. 1:10:35 Mining should probably be stopped first 1:10:37 , like a moratorium, you know. Even 1:10:39 though it's the biggest cost and the 1:10:41 most troublesome, it's a shame that we 1:10:43 aren't even able to manage the damage 1:10:45 it causes, you know. The added value 1:10:49 doesn't go to the state, unless we do 1:10:51 what Sukarno did, nationalization, but 1:10:53 that would be very difficult to fight 1:10:56 for in the current global context, Bang 1:10:58 Aldi. Alright, thank you Pak Marani, 1:11:03 and with that, my friends, we have 1:11:04 arrived at the end of the show. It was 1:11:07 a very interesting discussion regarding 1:11:10 the economy, and we hope that our 1:11:12 leaders can start fixing and building 1:11:15 our economy. Without being trapped in 1:11:18 debates and, uh, political friction 1:11:21 that has no impact on the prosperity of 1:11:24 the people. Now, this is where strong 1:11:28 leadership and expertise are needed to 1:11:31 build the economy so that our national 1:11:33 goals of achieving a prosperous 1:11:34 Indonesia can be realized. Improving 1:11:39 the welfare of the nation, educating 1:11:41 the nation, and realizing prosperity 1:11:44 for all Indonesian people can be 1:11:46 achieved. Alright, as usual at the end 1:11:49 of the show, we hope every guest 1:11:51 speaker can provide a closing statement 1:11:54 . A closing statement or closing ideas, 1:11:56 first to Pak Nailul Huda. Please. 1:11:59 Yes. Thank you, Mas Aldi. It was 1:12:02 interesting to see our discussion 1:12:04 tonight. Of course, we actually hope 1:12:09 for a breakthrough from the 1:12:11 president-elect that demonstrates 1:12:14 policies capable of changing existing 1:12:17 ones. Because if I may say, the 1:12:21 policies currently being issued are 1:12:23 policies that are destructive in nature 1:12:26 . Earlier, Pak Marani also mentioned 1:12:30 mining, and there are others that are 1:12:32 also destructive, including the Job 1:12:34 Creation Law. That's why we hope for 1:12:39 breakthroughs that can move past 1:12:42 current policies and replace them with 1:12:46 new ones that are pro-growth and 1:12:49 pro-poor. So, they should be 1:12:53 pro-economic growth and also 1:12:55 pro-poverty alleviation. That might be 1:12:59 all from me, Mas. 1:13:01 Alright, thank you, Pak Nailul. Next, 1:13:04 Pak Agus Eko, please give your closing 1:13:06 statement, Sir. 1:13:08 Uh, thank you, it is indeed very 1:13:10 interesting, this is an extraordinarily 1:13:11 huge challenge for our economy going 1:13:13 forward. How we provide a strong 1:13:17 foundation for Indonesia's economy in 1:13:21 2045 will be greatly determined by our 1:13:24 next steps. And I think the most 1:13:30 important thing, first, is how we can 1:13:33 concretely focus on solving economic 1:13:37 problems in our agricultural sector. 1:13:42 That's the first thing. So we have to 1:13:45 concretely evaluate everything, from 1:13:49 agricultural productivity and 1:13:52 infrastructure to our markets and the 1:13:55 existing value or supply chains. Next, 1:14:00 of course, is development in our 1:14:03 industrial sector. This is where we 1:14:07 need to be firm: whether we will push 1:14:11 for the growth of labor-intensive 1:14:14 industries, where we have significant 1:14:18 strength, or whether we should have a 1:14:22 comprehensive industrial policy. In my 1:14:26 opinion, all of those are no longer 1:14:28 effective. We must be able to choose 1:14:31 specific sectors that are significant 1:14:35 and provide concrete solutions for 1:14:38 absorbing our labor force and human 1:14:41 resources, while simultaneously 1:14:43 preparing for more productive human 1:14:47 capital to transition toward a 1:14:49 significant knowledge-based economy. I 1:14:53 think that's all, Mas Aldi. 1:14:58 Alright, thank you, Pak Agus Eko. And 1:15:01 next, Bung Roki, please go ahead. 1:15:06 Every time we talk about transition, 1:15:08 there are two steps in our minds. The 1:15:12 step out of something and the step into 1:15:14 something, that is what a transition is 1:15:15 ; the time-lapse must be like that. Our 1:15:19 transition from Jokowi to Prabowo is 1:15:22 something we can quickly agree on. Okay 1:15:26 , the knowledge-based economy. Okay, 1:15:28 now the calculation is just to make a 1:15:30 crash program in that field. 1:15:31 Knowledge-based economy. Once there is 1:15:35 a crash program, it could be calculated 1:15:37 ; perhaps in the first 100 days the 1:15:39 direction of the knowledge-based 1:15:41 economy will be visible, but people 1:15:43 want to see the projects—what are the 1:15:45 one-year projects, and how much money 1:15:47 is needed for that crash program? If we 1:15:51 need, for example, 800 trillion rupiah 1:15:54 next year, that would show the scale of 1:15:57 the economy, and that is what the 1:16:00 people actually want to see. But that 1:16:03 idea hasn't appeared, has it? Suppose 1:16:05 800 trillion is needed, where would we 1:16:07 ask for it? From China? China is 1:16:09 bankrupt. Ask from the Arabs? The Arabs 1:16:10 won't give it. We would be forced to go 1:16:13 to Donald Trump if he wins, because 1:16:15 that's where the dollars are. That 1:16:17 means a new economic relationship with 1:16:19 America. And it shows that our ability 1:16:23 to prove we have a knowledge-based 1:16:26 economy with five specific crash 1:16:29 programs must involve lobbying in 1:16:32 America. Now the question is, who will 1:16:35 lobby them? Those are all technical 1:16:37 matters that must be addressed. Will 1:16:39 Sri Mulyani be placed there again to 1:16:41 lobby for this Washington consensus? So 1:16:44 everything we call optimism is 1:16:46 cancelled because we don't see how it 1:16:48 can be done. Meanwhile, President 1:16:51 Jokowi intends to control the 1:16:52 budget-making process in the DPR later 1:16:54 through the takeover of Golkar. This is 1:16:57 also an issue right there. That means 1:17:00 traditional political factors will 1:17:02 enter into economic planning again, 1:17:04 which should be apolitical. So the 1:17:07 first step is that Prabowo must say, I 1:17:09 will not concern myself with political 1:17:11 factors. I will leave that to the 1:17:13 technocrats. It's quite difficult 1:17:16 because to reach that point, there must 1:17:18 be a state address by the 1:17:20 president-elect that clearly signals to 1:17:22 the international community and 1:17:24 international money markets that I, 1:17:26 President Prabowo, will no longer 1:17:28 tolerate the things done by the 1:17:30 previous regime. The question is, is he 1:17:33 able to say those words? The point is 1:17:36 that a president no longer needs his 1:17:39 economic advisors. Economic advisors 1:17:41 will work once the paradigm has been 1:17:43 provided by the new president. Well, 1:17:45 that is what is not yet there. 1:17:48 Alright, thank you, Mrs. Rokih. And 1:17:51 finally, for the closing, Mr. Mardani, 1:17:53 please, sir. 1:17:54 Thank you, sir, bro. How are you, bro? 1:17:57 Always healthy. Long live PKS. 1:18:00 Long live PKS. Even though Jakarta 1:18:07 First of all, Bang Aldi, if I may, the 1:18:11 Prophet Muhammad peace be upon him 1:18:14 reminded us that poverty is close to 1:18:18 disbelief. Ali bin Abi Talib said, "Lau 1:18:23 kanal miskinu rajulan laqtultuhu." If 1:18:27 poverty were a man, I would kill him. 1:18:31 So the struggle against poverty is a 1:18:34 noble task. And because of that, two 1:18:37 things, Bang Aldi. First, Mr. Prabowo, 1:18:41 who reportedly wants to escape the 1:18:44 clutches of the oligarchy or the Nine 1:18:47 Dragons, needs to explain his economic 1:18:51 direction and vision from day one in 1:18:54 office. But more important than that, 1:18:58 who will be chosen as the Minister of 1:19:00 Finance? Because regarding the chosen 1:19:02 Minister of Finance, I was a bit 1:19:04 saddened when Mas Tomi's nephew was 1:19:05 appointed as Deputy Minister of Finance 1:19:07 . Even though maybe that was to smooth 1:19:11 things over, from the start, signals of 1:19:15 meritocracy should be emphasized that 1:19:19 Indonesia truly has many best talents 1:19:22 and give that merit to the best people, 1:19:26 who sometimes need to be hunted, need 1:19:30 to be sought, need to be offered. India 1:19:35 , with all its complexities, Narendra 1:19:38 Modi is able to maintain extraordinary 1:19:41 economic growth. And as a trade-off, 1:19:46 although it has many social problems, 1:19:49 in the economic field, the public sees 1:19:52 India as one of those that, although 1:19:55 not as fast as China, has good economic 1:19:57 growth capacity. And that is a note for 1:20:02 us in Indonesia; God willing, it can be 1:20:04 done when entrusted to people who are 1:20:07 indeed experts and people who have 1:20:09 integrity, not just "yes men," right, 1:20:11 Bang Aldi? Alright, thank you, Mr. 1:20:16 Mardani and all the resource persons, 1:20:19 Mrs. Rokih, Mr. Agus Eko, and Mr. Nil 1:20:21 Huda for our conversation tonight. ILT 1:20:25 never tires of raising economic themes, 1:20:27 because we want our government to have 1:20:30 an impact on economic progress, right? 1:20:34 Not just fighting for the presidential 1:20:36 seat, fighting to win elections, but 1:20:39 when in office, the leaders provide no 1:20:42 prosperity for the community. Now, it 1:20:46 is time for our leaders to delve into 1:20:48 and understand the economic issues we 1:20:51 face, and the ways to build our 1:20:53 economic sector so that it has an 1:20:56 impact on improving the people's 1:20:58 economy and their welfare, and 1:21:00 realizing an Indonesia that is 1:21:02 prosperous for all. Alright, thank you. 1:21:05 See you on the Inalir Stok program next 1:21:07 week at the same time and on the same 1:21:09 channel. Peace be upon you, and Allah's 1:21:11 mercy and blessings. 
