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0:09 Brail TV. 0:16 Peace be upon you, and Allah's mercy 0:18 and blessings. Brother Ihsanuddin Nursi 0:20 , how are you? 0:22 Peace be upon you too, 0:24 and Allah's mercy and blessings. Masha 0:26 Allah, this month is full of blessings, 0:28 isn't it? Masha Allah, the Prophet's 0:30 birthday. Pray upon the Prophet. O 0:32 Allah, send blessings upon our master 0:35 Muhammad. Our master Muhammad. 0:37 O Allah. How are you, Brother? The 0:40 world doesn't seem to be doing well, 0:42 right? Disasters are everywhere. Wars 0:45 are everywhere. Even nature is coughing 0:48 . But looking at our republic, it 0:51 doesn't seem to be doing well either. 0:55 Suddenly the President asks Danantara 0:57 to send 120 trillion. Is this coming 1:01 from which commission? 11. Everyone is 1:04 restless; there's no news about it. 1:06 Suddenly it's sent; it's the 1:07 President's wish, the coalition head, 1:09 right? What is happening with Danantara 1:13 and the state budget, and also the 1:15 middle class that seems to have dropped 1:17 from over 57 million to 47 million? 1:21 Where did these people go, and what are 1:23 they becoming now? Many factors 1:26 determine this, but what is the cause? 1:31 Perhaps Brother Ihsanuddin Nursi can 1:33 provide an explanation amidst the news 1:34 about Prabowo's approval rating. Among 1:39 the top officials, they are blaming 1:41 each other. What is this Bakom doing? 1:44 They say use this theory, that theory, 1:46 and so on. What does Brother Ihsanuddin 1:50 Nursi see in this current turmoil? 1:54 Meanwhile, the world is looking for a 1:56 sample of a battle that will be won by 1:58 whom? Russia and China unite in the SCO 2:02 . Iran remains the brightest star. Ah, 2:06 will there be a new economic order? Can 2:10 Iran resist the, uh, jolt from Trump 2:13 with the blocking of, uh, all its 2:15 economy? Even Egypt has started getting 2:18 restless being threatened by America. 2:22 How, uh, can Brother Ihsanuddin Nursi 2:24 provide an explanation for our 2:25 listeners, and what will the listeners, 2:27 after these 40 minutes, be able to gain 2:29 to make their minds even brighter? 2:33 Please go ahead, Brother Ihsanuddin 2:35 Nursi. 2:36 Very well. 2:37 In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious 2:39 , the Most Merciful. Exalted are You, 2:41 we have no knowledge except what You 2:42 have taught us; indeed, it is You who 2:44 is the All-Knowing, the Wise. O Allah, 2:46 send blessings upon our master Muhammad 2:48 . All praise is due to Allah, Lord of 2:50 the worlds. Um, first, let's talk about 2:57 the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. 3:01 Yeah. 3:06 Because, uh, it seems separate from the 3:08 Belt and Road Initiative. Whereas this, 3:14 uh, is one link in a chain. One link in 3:20 a chain with the Belt and Road 3:23 Initiative. 3:25 The Belt and Road Initiative is growth 3:27 cooperation. 3:28 Hm. Meanwhile, for the Shanghai 3:33 Cooperation Organization, it is more 3:36 about how those who sit, uh, are 3:44 already in a position of equality. If 3:49 the Belt and Road Initiative is China 3:51 investing, it seems like that, right? 3:54 Yeah. 3:56 China is the one doing, uh, China as 3:58 the party initiating it. If in the 4:03 Shanghai Cooperation Organization, uh, 4:05 the parties are initiating. 4:08 H. 4:11 Monetarily, it remains on the principle 4:13 of avoiding two things. Avoiding 4:20 dollarization, avoiding the SWIFT code. 4:27 They do not want to use payment 4:28 facilities, uh, the SWIFT code, uh, in 4:30 their transactions, using their 4:32 respective currencies, 4:37 and by doing so, they do not use the 4:39 dollar. Therefore, between the Belt and 4:44 Road Initiative and the Shanghai 4:46 Cooperation Organization, it is 4:48 essentially dedollarization. 4:51 Look, we're being listened to by people 4:53 . 4:54 Oh, yes. 4:56 Well, of course, it's radio. 4:59 No, no, it's not being listened to by, 5:01 quote unquote, people on the radio, no. 5:05 Moving on, Israel even has two spots 5:08 listening in, right. My goodness. 5:13 Please listen carefully, we are in a 5:15 dialogue this morning on Rasil. Yes. 5:19 Record it well, record it as best you 5:21 can for those who are recording. Yes. 5:23 For those who are on duty on behalf of 5:25 the country. 5:27 Great. Now, because of that, when ZK 5:34 expressed wanting to cooperate with 5:36 Kyrgyzstan, 5:40 Yes. 5:41 Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, for 5:43 instance, 5:43 Yes. 5:48 It’s clear what’s being stitched 5:50 together is South Asian regional 5:51 cooperation that connects to the Middle 5:53 East, that connects to Europe. Yes. 6:03 Actually, Iran's statement is more of 6:05 an effort to build an alternative to 6:07 American pressure 6:16 and like it or not, this is a smart way 6:18 for countries that really want to 6:20 reject American ways that 6:27 in my words, have multiple double 6:29 standards. Hm. 6:32 So, and they truly realize just how 6:34 arbitrary, how willful, how high-handed 6:36 America is, 6:38 how they do as they please 6:39 using their dollar power, using their 6:41 military power, using their power. 6:46 And this Shanghai Cooperation 6:48 Organization, this Shanghai cooperation 6:56 organization is not just about trade, 6:58 not just about infrastructure, but also 7:01 about security cooperation. Wow, that's 7:04 where it gets interesting. 7:06 Yes. 7:07 So, there are various dimensions 7:09 discussed in that position as well. 7:13 It just hasn't reached the level of, 7:15 say, the NATO case. But the point is, 7:20 the parties realize the importance of 7:22 cooperation in security, politics, 7:24 energy, infrastructure, finance, it's 7:27 all in there. 7:28 Yes. 7:29 Now, Iran proposed that, 7:31 you know. 7:36 Iran proposed that their neighbor in 7:37 Bandar Abbas build an energy hub with 7:39 oil supplies from Iran. Oh, and then 7:46 the results are split in half. Oh, I 7:48 see. 7:49 That's one example, for instance. Now, 7:54 of course, this will reduce dependency, 7:56 in my words, this will reduce 7:58 dependency on the West. Yes. With that 8:09 reduced dependency, of course, the 8:10 meaning of independence, the meaning of 8:12 economic sovereignty increases. Ah, 8:17 that is what 8:18 is intended to be achieved through the 8:20 Shanghai Cooperation Organization. 8:22 Cooperation. 8:26 This Shanghai cooperation organization 8:28 certainly opens up new territory, what 8:30 is called a world increasingly 8:32 dispersed in economic cooperation. At 8:38 the same time, America is facing 8:40 resistance, not only from its enemies, 8:43 yes. 8:44 but also from its partners like Mark 8:46 Carney from Canada who, 8:47 ooh. 8:48 actually shows the ability to resist. 8:51 Electricity is about to be turned off. 8:54 Yes. So, 8:57 actually, here we get a lesson. We get 9:02 a lesson that, if today we talk about 9:08 efforts to restore energy control, 9:13 it's like an old model. This is an old 9:16 model and that means the Article 33 9:19 model, sections 1, 2, and 3, which once 9:26 again limits the meaning of the free 9:28 market in the primary energy sector. 9:31 Hm. 9:33 Actually, the government must 9:34 immediately address the free market in 9:36 the secondary energy sector, 9:38 specifically electricity. H 9:41 like that. uh slowly but surely, 9:45 electricity prices keep rising. the 9:49 burden keeps increasing. 9:51 slowly, there is legislation for it. 9:54 it rises slowly, and whether you use it 9:56 or not, you pay; that is the private 9:58 sector's demand to PLN. 10:01 whether you want to use mine or not, 10:03 it’s up to you, but you must pay. 10:06 and then they determine their own 10:07 primary energy, for example, the coal 10:09 industry, they... 10:11 from upstream to generation, they are 10:13 in control, like that. 10:14 Yeah. 10:15 That is actually what is called part of 10:16 the effort to dictate 10:18 to the state. 10:21 In my words, it's part of corporate 10:23 domination in the energy sector. If 10:27 using the "Prahara Bangsa" book, it's 10:29 like that. Now, we can actually learn 10:33 here 10:37 from this Shanghai Cooperation 10:38 Organization, we can learn that these 10:40 countries still distinguish between the 10:42 livelihoods of many, commercial goods, 10:44 and quasi-goods. So they don't just 10:48 blindly follow. Now, I have heard for a 10:53 long time that Prabowo Subianto intends 10:55 to abolish SKK Migas, which was issued 10:58 by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono when BP 11:00 Migas was disbanded by the 11:01 Constitutional Court, but then it was 11:03 issued as the new face of SKK Migas. I 11:08 said 11:10 this is proof of resistance from the 11:12 executive who birthed SKK Migas. Yeah. 11:16 And I see they will build a new 11:18 enterprise. 11:19 Yeah. 11:21 A special business entity, under 11:22 Prabowo Subianto, as a form of their 11:24 submission to the constitution. In 11:29 other words, if we understand it here, 11:31 the Indonesian government has indeed 11:33 been implementing liberalization or a 11:35 free market in the energy sector for a 11:37 long time. Meanwhile, if we learn from 11:44 Iran, which is present here to join the 11:46 Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 11:50 then it is realized by those countries 11:52 that the livelihoods of the many cannot 11:56 possibly be left to the free market. 11:58 H 11:59 uh. This is what is called by The New 12:01 York Times, by 12:06 it has not reached how far the state 12:08 can be involved, like how they see 12:10 Trump involved in intervening in the 12:11 provision of livelihoods for the many 12:15 like that 12:17 and that worries large private circles. 12:21 Now, at this level, it's clear there is 12:23 a great battle between fossil energy 12:25 and new renewable energy. Yeah. Now, 12:29 that position is what is currently 12:31 happening. Now, in the middle of such a 12:34 situation, we are facing forest burning 12:36 . 12:39 Whereas their goal is to plant palm oil 12:41 . Now, palm oil is part of that earlier 12:43 thing. 12:43 uh 12:45 by destroying the forest, they want to 12:47 claim they are involved in 12:48 environmentalism. Isn't that chaotic? 12:50 It's chaotic, right? 12:51 Their real reason is just to build palm 12:53 oil plantations. 12:54 Correct. 12:55 Hm. simply looking for 12:56 until finally, there were 72 suspects 12:59 found in the province; that's a lot, 13:01 it's extraordinary. 13:06 But still, what is the point of being a 13:08 suspect if, in the end, the forest 13:10 cannot be restored after they burned it 13:12 ? 13:12 And finally, the permit to develop palm 13:14 oil continues, so there is a crime, but 13:16 there is no restoration. So, if the 13:19 story is about a forest area custody 13:22 part, or PKH, right? 13:24 with its forest fire task force and so 13:26 on. 13:26 But the forest is already burned, and 13:28 then criminal charges seem like they 13:29 can restore the forest—they can't. 13:31 Satisfying. 13:32 Now, it shouldn't just be that their 13:33 permits are revoked. 13:35 Hm. That, 13:37 and they are forced again to reforest, 13:38 to replant. Wow, that would be cool. 13:41 That would be cool, you know. Now, that 13:44 is the proof of, uh, how much we truly 13:47 care for our forests 13:49 as part of the world's lungs, 13:52 as proof that we are environmentally 13:54 friendly, that’s the term, right? 13:57 Friendly with the environment, close to 13:58 the environment, like that. So it's not 14:01 just, you know, empty boasting. Not 14:03 just boasting, but then when 14:05 Wow, people are living, the orangutans 14:07 are having a hard time living there now 14:09 . H. 14:13 Now, so if we take, if we say we are 14:15 environmentally friendly, we submit to 14:17 a green economy, you know. 14:20 Where are we submitting to a green 14:22 economy? The green economy formula 14:24 itself is actually still within the 14:25 framework of a free market. Within the 14:27 framework where corporations can still 14:29 dictate, right. And it's proven now 14:31 with the forest burning that 14:32 corporations dictate crudely, right. 14:36 That's part of corporations dictating 14:38 crudely, corporations dictating as they 14:41 please. And this is not a new event, an 14:43 event that repeats who knows how many 14:45 dozen times. 14:48 Look at it this way. So if, uh, then a 14:51 forest fire task force is formed, 14:55 with—I don't know, I can't confirm if 14:57 Isam is the chairman. That would 15:00 be exciting too. 15:02 Left and right. Okay. Hm. He 15:05 yeah, that's how it is. Now, 15:08 uh, the story, if we go back, right. 15:12 Now, let's look at the, uh, decline of 15:14 the middle class. My figures show the 15:19 middle class has indeed dropped by 9.48 15:21 million. W 15:24 9.48 million. 15:28 Uh, that's part of the picture of, uh, 15:34 the inability to overcome the impacts 15:36 of COVID, right. Finally, they fell. 15:40 H 15:41 one. Second, the inability to handle an 15:46 uncertain economic situation with 15:48 skyrocketing prices 15:51 and the dollar being, uh, in such a 15:53 state. 15:55 The Rupiah falls, right. This is 2024, 15:57 yeah, 2026 it will be even worse. 16:03 Uh, third, this is the impact of that 16:06 uncertainty, uh, misallocation of the 16:08 state budget. 16:13 The state budget doesn't provide 16:15 liquidity, right, 16:17 that is sufficient, so they can't 16:19 survive. What's interesting is my 16:22 figure. So, uh, the middle-class 16:26 decline of 9.48 million. Now, that is 16:31 followed by—here's the interesting 16:33 part—what people don't see, 16:34 sectorally related to the monetary and 16:37 fiscal sectors. The sectoral decline of 16:40 the middle class is followed by 16:42 undisbursed loans. 16:44 What is that? 16:45 Undisbursed loan is credit that has 16:47 been provided but not withdrawn. whose 16:49 figure doesn't move, stuck at 2,548 16:52 trillion. 16:53 H 16:54 it only dropped by about R trillion, 16:56 from 2,577 to 2,548. 17:00 Hm. 17:01 Right? Yeah. So about, about that much 17:03 of a drop. 17:04 H 17:05 about 29, about that much. 17:08 Yes, 30 trillion, right? 17:10 Can't do business or what? Now, uh, I 17:18 have actually presented this many times 17:20 in various places. Yes, seven 17:23 indicators of stalled growth that make 17:25 the small folks suffer. That is my 17:28 title. 17:29 Hmm. Well, uh if we look at the 2,548 17:38 trillion that was not disbursed despite 17:40 being available, then first, the 17:42 private real sector sees uncertainty, 17:49 hmm. 17:50 there is high business risk so they are 17:52 holding back. 17:55 Hm. The impact of them holding back 18:00 leads to banks returning to SRBI and 18:01 banks going back to SBN. 18:06 Hm. 18:07 Meaning they are the ones being drained 18:09 , so to speak. Now, 18:11 the further impact is that the 18:12 corporations not disbursing it are also 18:14 performing efficiency measures. Now, 18:17 the closest form of efficiency is 18:19 layoffs. 18:20 Hm. Now, the same impact when we see 18:25 interest rate competition between the 18:28 Fed Fund Rate, SRBI, SBN, and deposit 18:30 rates, results in parties needing 18:32 funding, in this case, the middle class 18:34 , also becoming fearful. High interest 18:41 rates, uncertain business risk, high 18:43 political risk, so they hold back and 18:45 that's how it compounds. 18:48 Now, there it shows 18:50 there it shows the relationship between 18:52 monetary, fiscal, and sectoral. 18:55 So don't say it will be able to lower 18:57 it, since Purbai recently stated that 18:59 through Himbara we will lower 400 19:01 trillion. So it's no longer 200 19:03 trillion, right. 19:04 Now, how will 400 trillion be lowered? 19:07 For what? The credit that has already 19:09 been provided but not disbursed 19:12 that undisbursed loan remains unchanged 19:15 at 2,548 trillion. 19:19 Now, that indicates the economy is 19:25 stalling. 19:26 Hm. 19:27 but they refute it, saying it's not. 19:29 Economic growth is currently 5.2, right 19:31 . 19:31 Yes. That's it. 19:32 5.2, right. Here is where the problem 19:35 arises. Yeah. Hm. 19:37 Yes. Here is where the data problem 19:40 arises. Whose data is accurate? They 19:43 say, "Wow, Danantara can achieve high 19:45 profits." The main issue is Danantara 19:48 can achieve profits reaching hundreds 19:50 of trillions, which they say multiplied 19:52 by how many times, I don't know. 19:54 There's one that multiplied if I'm not 19:56 mistaken, what is it, uh I forgot, one 20:00 of the SOEs. 20:01 Hm. 20:03 Mentioned in the speech that the 20:04 increase was multiple-fold. 20:05 Yeah. We must see now, is the audited 20:09 financial report available yet or not? 20:15 Is the audited financial report 20:17 available yet? Now, if they say the 20:20 auditor's report is already there, why 20:22 didn't Danantara present these profits 20:24 based on the auditor's reports of each 20:25 SOE? 20:27 Hm. Those are the big questions that 20:31 emerge. So on what basis of calculation 20:34 does Danantara, which is said to have 20:36 successfully gathered profits, rely on? 20:39 What is the basis of the calculation? 20:41 What is the report? Like that. Audited 20:43 report. Okay. If it is said to be an 20:45 audited report because this is open, 20:47 fine. Because the audited report is 20:48 open, the big question becomes where is 20:50 the consolidation of the reports that 20:52 were each already audited. 20:53 Or let's say now, where are the reports 20:55 that haven't been audited but are 20:57 already consolidated. Yeah. 20:58 Well, this has long-term effects. And 21:01 that is what creates distrust. 21:03 Heh. 21:04 Looking deeper into it, 21:07 I see. 21:07 The condition. So, when we look at the 21:10 middle class, still... 21:12 Actually, that's not new data. It's not 21:16 the August 29th data that appeared 21:17 recently. That is old data because I 21:20 have presented it everywhere 21:21 regarding the fall of the middle class. 21:24 Even the middle class that is 21:25 vulnerable to poverty is also 21:27 plummeting, you know. The middle class. 21:29 Why the lack of purchasing power 21:30 earlier? 21:31 Where did the poor go? Maybe they fell 21:33 further? 21:34 Maybe they fell down further. But they 21:37 said poverty has decreased. 21:39 Try telling the World Bank it can't be. 21:41 Your country 21:43 is upper middle income. H 21:47 upper middle. Yeah. 21:49 Middle. So, the upper middle class... 21:54 It's there. 21:55 From the upper middle income position, 21:57 middle upper. 21:58 Trapped in the middle. 22:00 What does that mean? Trapped in this 22:01 middle income, Ma'am, 22:06 which they call the structure of upper, 22:08 middle-upper, middle, middle-lower, 22:10 lower, and very lower. Those five 22:15 classes, 22:16 actually using World Bank data, which 22:18 ultimately shows with World Bank data 22:20 that Indonesia's poverty rate is the 22:22 highest in Asia, 22:24 amounting to 64.2%. 22:27 Hm. 22:29 Ah, that's because the World Bank 22:30 changed Indonesia's position from lower 22:32 middle to upper middle, jumping twice. 22:36 Right? It should have been... 22:39 It should be lower middle, middle, 22:41 upper middle. Middle tending toward 22:45 upper with an indicator of around 4,000 22:47 -something. 22:49 Yeah. 22:49 Its GDP. Well, once you enter GDP 22:52 metrics, a problem arises. 22:54 Yeah. 22:56 The thing is, why is debt based on 22:58 World Bank theory calculated annually 23:04 against GDP? Why isn't it calculated 23:06 based on taxation? 23:07 Hm. In banking, you aren't allowed to 23:11 borrow more than 30%of your monthly 23:13 income, right? Why in countries is debt 23:21 calculation based on GDP? As if it were 23:25 income. Whereas concrete income isn't 23:27 in GDP. 23:29 Concrete income is in taxation. Is that 23:31 logical? 23:34 Yes. No, no. I just want to state the 23:39 illogical nature of the formulas built 23:40 by the World Bank. 23:42 H 23:43 Just like before when they built 30%, 23:46 now they think 40%to 60%. Right? 23:51 How they changed 30%to 60%, and then 23:54 with the 60%position, it's because they 23:56 calculate it against GDP. What is the 24:01 state's revenue, the state's debt 24:03 compared to GDP? Now the state debt has 24:06 reached 10,293 trillion or more, 24:11 with interest rates moving from 6.9 to 24:14 7.2 percent. 24:16 So, the rich get richer, the poor get 24:18 poorer. 24:22 Because the state budget, those debt 24:24 securities, are bought by the rich, 24:26 right? And the people pay the taxes, 24:29 right, Brother? 24:31 Correct. Yes. That's it. So, the 24:33 interest installments are paid through 24:35 the people's taxes. That's why, since 24:37 it's the people's taxes paying for it, 24:39 given that 82%of the state budget 24:41 depends on taxation, 24:43 on tax revenue, that's how the phrase 24:45 goes. 24:47 So we should be measuring it not as 24:49 debt to GDP, but as debt to tax revenue 24:51 ; that's the logic. 24:54 That would be logical. Wow. Now, from 24:57 there, we can get a valid figure. The 25:01 valid figure is that the state budget 25:03 is already pressured above 35%. Hmm. 25:08 For 2027 alone, my calculation reaches 25:11 35.46%. 25:14 Oh. 25:14 For 2026, where the deficit figure is 25:17 higher, it will certainly be higher. 25:19 Hmm. 25:20 Now, this is what 25:22 takes time, yes. He he he. 25:26 Meaning, with a position like that, how 25:28 can you still dare to keep opening up 25:30 debt? You still dare to create new debt 25:33 . 25:35 For example, if we talk about a few 25:37 months ago, our debt figure was 9,920 25:39 trillion. Now the position is already 25:43 10,293 trillion, 29, for instance, if 25:46 you want to put it that way. That means 25:48 you are creating new debt just because 25:51 you cannot overcome the state budget 25:52 deficit through taxation. The budget 25:54 deficit cannot be covered by what is 25:56 called state revenue from natural 25:57 resources. 25:58 Even though those natural resources 26:00 have created a number of conglomerates 26:02 who are wealthy people. Like that. 26:06 Is this also why the government does 26:08 not want to use IMF funds, because 26:10 there would be many rules forced upon 26:12 this country? Or how is it, sir? Today, 26:16 Mr. Prabowo stated that he would not 26:18 use debt from the IMF. What about your 26:20 take on our relationship with this 26:22 global economic institution? I happen 26:25 to have deep experience, yes, with 26:30 IMF issues. Because one of my 26:33 experiences is that we sued the IMF at 26:35 an International Tribunal. 26:37 Hmm. 26:38 Because their economic recovery 26:40 prescription was wrong. 26:42 Hmm. 26:44 The International Tribunal rejected it 26:46 because the lawsuit should not have 26:47 come from citizens, 26:49 but must come from the state. 26:50 And because of that, the IMF later 26:52 apologized. Yeah. 26:53 Even though because of the IMF, yes, 26:56 Yeah. 26:56 Our economy is a mess as it is now, 26:59 our economy has been handed over mostly 27:01 to the private sector. So there were 27:04 some fundamental structural errors. 27:06 Let me repeat. 27:08 There were fundamental structural 27:10 errors in the IMF's recommendations to 27:12 Indonesia when we had a crisis. 27:15 And because of that, we sued them at an 27:16 International Tribunal. 27:18 Hmm. Yeah. 27:19 And the IMF and the International 27:20 Tribunal rejected it because the 27:22 lawsuit was not based on membership. So 27:24 , it's what you call legal standing. 27:26 Yeah. 27:27 The legal standing is not that of 27:29 citizens, but the legal standing of the 27:30 state. But then the IMF apologized 27:34 because we proved it—there were 21 of 27:36 us at that time, yes. 27:38 Yeah. 27:39 There was Hartoyo, there was Rizal 27:41 Ramli, 27:43 there was Sri Edi Swasono, me, and 27:46 several other parties, yes. There was 27:48 the late Amin Aziz. 27:50 Now, 27:53 from there we actually learned that not 27:55 all Western prescriptions are effective 27:57 . Not all Western prescriptions are 28:00 potent. 28:04 And since those Western prescriptions 28:06 are not potent, we should also learn 28:08 that Western concepts are not entirely 28:13 potent, not entirely effective. And in 28:17 my study, specifically on July 4, 2024, 28:23 at a meeting of Southeast Asian 28:24 scholars, I declared the century-long 28:26 failure of the West. Judging from 28:32 indicators like the collapse of the 28:34 family unit, the decay of human values, 28:36 while a handful of people control the 28:38 world's GDP. And that is shown by the 28:45 findings of Stiglitz, Thomas Piketty, 28:47 and Michael Hudson. 28:50 The data, that is. I also pointed this 28:52 out using research from PE Research and 28:54 such. 28:59 And when I used that data from a 29:01 political economy perspective, based on 29:03 the US National Security Strategy and 29:05 National Defense Strategy, ChatGPT AI 29:07 could not deny it and said, "Yes, your 29:10 study is correct, sir." Yes. 29:18 Now, from there, I want to say to Rasil 29:20 listeners, to Rasil TV viewers, why, 29:26 knowing this, do we still talk about 29:28 changing the regime while the system is 29:30 left as it is? 29:33 Even though I have said many times that 29:35 this system is a mess. 29:38 This system is the wrong system. 29:40 Whoever the regime is. Yeah. 29:42 Whoever the regime is. It's just like I 29:44 said. In my writing, whoever the 29:46 governor is, 29:49 whoever the BI governor is, the rupiah 29:50 will never be able to strengthen, 29:54 inflation will never be fully under 29:55 control. 29:56 Exactly. Why? Because we implement a 30:01 system that complies with the rules 30:03 they created, which we adopted into our 30:05 laws. 30:07 Likewise, whoever the president is, 30:09 they will not be able to establish a 30:11 strong link between fiscal, monetary, 30:13 and sectoral policies. In the context 30:15 of national economic independence. I'm 30:17 not talking about sovereignty, 30:18 I'm just talking about independence. 30:20 Just independence, we haven't even 30:22 reached that, 30:22 let alone sovereignty. So whoever the 30:25 president is, whoever the 30:30 BI governor is, whoever the finance 30:32 minister is, whoever the ESDM minister 30:34 is, whoever the trade minister or 30:36 industry minister is, and let's add the 30:38 cooperative minister—well, no need to 30:40 count that one. It will remain the same 30:46 . Correct. 30:47 It will remain the same. We will never 30:50 be able to get out of what I call being 30:51 trapped on a misguided path. 30:54 Drifting in ignorance, as it were. 30:57 Trapped on a misguided path, and it 30:58 just keeps rolling on. And this isn't 31:02 just my recent study; this is a study 31:04 that has existed since 2004. Now, 31:10 knowing that the middle class is 31:11 falling and purchasing power is not 31:13 increasing, natural resources are 31:15 controlled by corporations, foreign 31:17 debt pressure is high, the exchange 31:19 rate is a mess, the monetary system is 31:21 dictated—well, 31:25 what more do you want to say? You 31:27 cannot deny that sequence of data. And 31:32 that is what I call the five items that 31:34 keep us trapped on that misguided path. 31:39 The five items that keep us—as we 31:41 discussed in our interview some time 31:43 ago—the five systems that prevent us 31:45 from escaping 31:49 from a dictated economic system. 31:52 My goodness. Seeing it like this, 31:55 brother, makes one scratch their head. 31:59 But in the field, it's busy, people are 32:01 in traffic, and markets are full. What 32:05 is actually happening? Are they 32:08 hibernating or just trying to survive 32:10 in their life journey right now? Humans 32:14 must keep moving forward. Can Bangsi 32:17 offer some insight for our listeners 32:19 amidst all these existing ills? There 32:26 are three important phenomena, three 32:27 key events we need to look at. They 32:32 still go to malls but are limited in 32:34 purchasing goods. They go just to look 32:36 around, to entertain themselves, 32:38 and if they have a little extra money, 32:40 to eat. Okay. 32:41 Oh, to eat. 32:42 That's it. So almost all restaurants, 32:45 almost all coffee shops are crowded 32:48 because they can no longer entertain 32:50 themselves anywhere except by going to 32:51 cafes, going to restaurants, 32:54 going to malls, and hanging out. 32:55 H 32:56 That’s the first phenomenon. The 33:00 second phenomenon, 33:03 is actually indicated by car 33:04 exhibitions— 33:06 oh, I 33:07 where interest is also limited. Limited 33:10 purchasing indicates that the economy 33:12 is indeed stagnant. 33:13 Yeah. 33:14 You can also see it, for example, in 33:16 motorcycle purchases. 33:17 H 33:18 That’s a sign of a stagnant economy. 33:20 Now, these phenomena illustrate 33:24 a misallocation in spending. This 33:27 misallocation is visible in the MBG 33:29 issue, 33:31 visible in the KDMP issue, H 33:35 visible in the issue where the state 33:37 budget no longer receives funds from 33:38 state-owned enterprises as separated 33:40 assets. 33:42 But 33:43 it's called separated state assets. 33:45 But they are being forced 33:46 to go to Danantara. 33:47 Forced to send 10 trillion, they say, 33:50 to the DPR. 33:51 Yes, sending it, but compared to 33:53 previous figures, it’s nothing. So, 33:59 it's not just 120 trillion compared to 34:01 the state budget figures, where revenue 34:04 reaches 3,000-something, 34:07 that is very small. 34:09 Very small. Not uh 34:11 yes 34:13 it doesn't even reach 10%if taken like 34:16 that. Now, from such a situation, the 34:22 next phenomenon is where there is 34:23 injustice. For example, when you talk 34:30 about the PPSK Law, 34:34 Article 50A states they are immune from 34:36 legal prosecution if they buy Patriot 34:38 Bonds and Merah Putih bonds, for 34:40 instance. At the same time, we witness 34:44 massive corruption. So, 34:46 so 34:49 there are different legal actions, 34:50 different legal treatments. There's the 34:55 rule of law, and here it’s 34:56 interesting. 35:00 The rule of law does not reflect a 35:01 sense of justice. So, from the drafting 35:07 of the law to its implementation, what 35:10 emerges is injustice. Therefore, the 35:14 enforcement also results in injustice. 35:19 So, when the economic sector reflects 35:21 unfair design, drafting, and 35:23 implementation of laws—and 35:24 consequently unfair enforcement—the 35:26 public will also adopt an unfair 35:28 attitude toward the government. Why? 35:33 Because of three things. First, they 35:36 have already surrendered their 35:38 sovereignty through political parties. 35:40 But the political parties do not 35:41 represent them. That’s one. One. 35:45 Second, they have paid their taxes, but 35:47 the tax money is used for luxury. It is 35:51 not aimed at improving their welfare, 35:53 right? 35:54 Well, if we talk about infrastructure 35:56 development, the World Bank proved that 35:58 infrastructure development only fell by 36:01 0.3%. When Sri Mulyani was Finance 36:06 Minister, she stated we still cannot 36:08 compete with our logistics costs 36:10 compared to neighboring countries, 36:12 meaning our incremental capital ratio 36:13 is high. What is the point? There is 36:17 corruption. 36:19 That’s how we see it. Now, when we 36:27 look at it that way, there’s an added 36:29 phenomenon now, which is massive 36:30 corruption being frequently mistreated 36:32 or poorly handled. 36:39 Some get harsh sentences, others who 36:41 should be processed legally, are not. 36:44 It depends on law enforcement. And at 36:50 the same time, there is what you might 36:51 call competition in law enforcement 36:53 between the agencies. How is that? 37:01 Yes. 37:03 Well, I called it on private TV as 37:06 a duel. But at the same time, it’s 37:10 really a picture of competition. A 37:12 picture of competition in law 37:13 enforcement. Even though the law 37:15 enforcement itself is already tainted. 37:18 In the economic sector, it already 37:20 reflects a sense of injustice when you 37:22 look at it. Now, there is a major 37:24 problem there. What is the major 37:25 problem there? Ah, this is what I call 37:28 a systemic failure. 37:29 What is it, brother? 37:31 In the House, they don’t represent 37:33 genuine or true 37:37 representation. 37:39 They don't reflect genuine true 37:41 representation. In the executive branch 37:47 , it’s the same; it doesn't reflect 37:49 genuine true governance, so when they 37:51 both create public policy using their 37:53 authority, that authority is 37:54 pseudo-authority. 37:59 False authority. 38:00 Right. In my way of thinking, both the 38:06 House and the executive have created a 38:08 governance model based on 38:10 pseudo-authority. 38:15 So the governance is based on 38:17 pseudo-authority. I call it false 38:18 authority. Now, when it moves to the 38:22 court, it becomes false certainty. A 38:26 belief, a legal certainty that is false 38:28 . Even though the authority is a false 38:30 authority. Now, that is what is 38:33 portrayed to the public, which is why 38:35 the approval rating has declined. 38:38 Hm. 38:39 Like that. That rating decline must be 38:42 viewed from that perspective. Now, I 38:44 would add one more thing. 38:49 You were asked about the communication 38:51 team on a private TV station; it looked 38:52 like you weren't denying it, but people 38:54 actually caught that 39:00 that your implicit message, your hidden 39:02 message. Heh. 39:06 So there is an explicit message, and 39:08 your implicit message is that you are 39:10 in denial. 39:13 Hm. 39:14 You are denying it. 39:16 Ah, imagine the state of the union 39:18 address on August 14, 2026. I am not 39:23 mandated to communicate, I am mandated 39:25 to work. That sentence is wrong. 39:32 That is wrong, that sentence. Wrong. 39:35 Yes, that is the importance of 39:36 narrative. Oh dear. 39:40 So, the speechwriter doesn't understand 39:44 h 39:46 that communication is a part of social 39:48 interaction. And when social 39:53 interaction is wrong, it breeds 39:55 antipathy. 39:58 H. This is something not understood 40:00 well, or elegantly, by those called 40:01 communication experts in the government 40:03 . 40:05 Bakom 40:05 cannot. You refute, for example, [K] 40:09 against Fatimah Zahra using a 40:11 quantitative approach, giving numbers, 40:13 numbers, numbers—that's quantitative, 40:15 as if everything can be quantified. Can 40:19 you really quantify satisfaction, truly 40:21 representing satisfaction with numbers? 40:24 Not really. 40:26 Hm. There are senses you cannot 40:28 quantify. There are feelings you cannot 40:31 quantify. The feeling of faith cannot 40:34 be quantified. The feeling of belief 40:37 cannot be quantified. Satisfaction may 40:40 be quantified, but it cannot be fully 40:43 quantified. My dissertation was on 40:46 things like this, you see. Sharp 40:48 debates, for instance, about moral 40:49 hazard. This is my dissertation right 40:51 here. 40:51 Moral hazard in economics. In economics 40:53 , I entered into banking and the state 40:55 budget (APBN). H 40:56 I was absolutely hammered on that. "How 41:00 can you quantify," they said, "moral 41:02 hazard?" Moral hazard is the immoral 41:06 behavior of officials, the immoral 41:08 behavior of business actors, right? 41:11 Because they feel guaranteed, they act 41:13 however they please. I said this is a 41:17 proxy to indicate a symptom. Well, like 41:21 that. So I created the formulas. I made 41:24 the formulas for the state budget, and 41:25 I made the formulas for banking. How is 41:27 moral hazard in banking, how is moral 41:29 hazard in the state budget? Like that. 41:33 For example, like that. Their boldness 41:35 in creating new debt, for example. 41:37 Creating new debt. 41:39 Without calculating state revenue 41:41 against, you know, the debt, for 41:43 instance. 41:44 Right. The formula earlier was state 41:46 revenue against debt, which illustrates 41:48 the state budget's ability to pay 41:50 principal installments and interest 41:52 each year, for example. 41:54 When they violate that, that's part of 41:56 moral hazard. Why? Because they still 41:59 feel, "Well, after all," 42:00 the standard set by the IMF is 60%. 42:04 That is moral hazard. 42:06 Those are the examples, you see. The 42:08 example in banking is also moral hazard 42:10 . "Oh well, savings are already 42:12 guaranteed by the LPS up to 2 billion, 42:14 it's fine." Ah, but banking is measured 42:17 strictly now. That is what is called: 42:19 how far the level of economic 42:21 resilience—both monetary and fiscal 42:23 —must be measured; there are metrics. 42:26 Now, when that metric gives an 42:28 indication, it manifests in a feeling. 42:31 Is it true or not like that? Regarding 42:36 your earlier question about people 42:37 still going here and there, people 42:39 still spending—yes, that is actually 42:41 part of, uh...a form of silent 42:47 resistance. 42:48 Hm. 42:49 One, they also do not want to pay taxes 42:51 . Even though they are constrained by 42:54 taxes in such a way, right? 42:56 Constrained by them, but in essence, 42:58 there is no sincerity to pay taxes. I. 43:02 Now, when the system is usurious with 43:04 management like that, the country has 43:06 no blessing; that's the bottom line. 43:09 MashaAllah. 43:10 It ends up there; the country lacks 43:11 blessing. 43:12 It's been 45 minutes already, brother. 43:14 InshaAllah. MashaAllah. Extraordinary. 43:16 MashaAllah. 43:17 One last thing, okay? 43:18 Go ahead. The last one. 43:21 If we speak, it's still early September 43:23 , isn't it? 43:26 Still a good month, 43:28 still in good times. If we want to talk 43:32 about a prosperous nation, a nation 43:33 with social justice. Then some people 43:38 are making a fuss about, uh, how Unhan 43:40 is rejecting hijabs, right? 43:43 An outright denial. 43:45 How could that happen? Then there are 43:47 people 43:48 who can read that they were given 43:49 alcoholic drinks, for example. So the 43:51 story goes. Yeah. So that illustrates 43:56 that there has actually been uh a 44:04 deepening conflict, a profound conflict 44:06 , a deepening conflict in the state of 44:08 Indonesian society that the government 44:10 is incapable of resolving. This is 44:16 definite because since we, uh, agreed 44:22 to the RIS, right, until now we have 44:24 truly betrayed, if I may use my words, 44:27 the Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution 44:29 . 44:33 Our debates, the debates that end up, 44:35 uh, in my words, opposing God. 44:38 Hm. And every nation that opposes God, 44:42 it seems, only looks rich, like the 44:44 height of their buildings, right? Some 44:47 people report the height of buildings 44:49 in Shanghai. Some people report the 44:51 height of buildings in Nanjing, in 44:53 Beijing, 44:53 uh, in Hong Kong, in Macau, 44:56 uh, in Guangzhou, and everywhere. 44:59 Including those in America and Europe, 45:01 right? 45:01 H. 45:02 But the fundamental question is, do 45:04 they have inner peace? 45:05 Right? Do they have, Sir, 45:08 that sense of tranquility, peace in 45:10 their lives, uh, deep in their hearts? 45:13 Well, that is what is now also not 45:15 possessed by Indonesia. 45:17 Masyaallah. 45:18 The case yesterday, uh, the August 27th 45:21 protest that resulted in someone dying, 45:25 that is a picture of a human life lost 45:27 because the society is already in a 45:29 state of deepening conflict. 45:31 Hm. 45:31 This is, my language isn't pleasant 45:33 here. 45:34 H. I want to say my language isn't 45:35 pleasant. Deepening conflict. The 45:37 society's conflict is already profound 45:39 and is not being resolved by the 45:41 authorities. Even law enforcement 45:43 officials, including the government, 45:45 seem to 45:48 take a stance where they aren't in a 45:50 position to, uh, make an effort to 45:51 prevent it. 45:53 Yes. It happened at night. Meanwhile, 45:56 while, uh, the Pati United Community 45:58 Alliance had already gone home by 46:00 midday and fought with the motorcycle 46:02 taxi drivers. They were in a dispute 46:04 with the motorcycle taxi drivers. Now, 46:07 that shows, uh, social conflict, right? 46:11 Yes. 46:11 Uh, deepening, already experiencing a 46:14 deepening, 46:15 deepening. 46:16 So, my interview this time, our chat 46:18 this morning, uh, reminds all circles 46:21 that we must not deepen it. Let's 46:24 shallow it out, and even let's resolve 46:26 it. 46:27 Let's resolve it in the way I mentioned 46:29 earlier, 46:30 uh, don't use a communication model 46:32 that is unsympathetic. I repeat, your 46:35 communication is not sympathetic at all 46:37 . 46:37 Uh, are these young people who have 46:39 just sat in the government 46:40 communication body, right? 46:42 Young people who feel they can master 46:44 data but their arguments 46:46 their arguments are shallow, right? H. 46:49 Uh, don't be mistaken, statistical 46:51 numbers do not represent, uh, 46:53 qualitative aspects. Repeat. 46:57 H. 46:59 So if using the methodology and system 47:01 configuration of Ihsanuddin Nursi in 47:03 the methodology I built, in the system 47:05 configuration I built, right? How we 47:10 are in such a deep state of conflict, 47:12 and how vulnerable our position is. 47:15 My God. 47:15 Ah, that is what should be addressed. I 47:18 think I should remind you of this, 47:20 Hanib, so we stay alert and keep this 47:22 nation intact. As I wrote in "The 47:25 Divided Nation," I wrote in "The 47:26 Nation's Ordeal." 47:27 My God. 47:28 Glory be to You, O Allah, and with Your 47:29 praise, I bear witness that there is no 47:31 deity but You, I seek Your forgiveness. 47:32 Peace be upon you, and the mercy of 47:34 Allah and His blessings. And to you. 47:35 And peace be upon you, and the mercy of 47:38 Allah and His blessings. 
